Trade Idea: Raptors Salary Dump

I read this trade proposal by verbatim over on Raptors Republic earlier

After the latest loss, I feel an unreasonable amount of pessimism. If BC made the following trade I would be happy:

Banks (or Evans), Belinelli, Calderon, Johnson, Weems
for
McGrady

I do not think Houston would do it. It would be a great way for us to rebuild though, by giving us lots of capspace and a major player in the 2010 market. Plus we get to keep DeRozan who has shown flashes of promise.

As the team stands now, can Bosh and Bargnani play solid team defence? No. Is Calderon the right pointguard for a team with weak interior defence? No. Maybe there are personnel issues here, not just better coaching and line shakeups needing.

I wrote a response or two in the comments section … in summary saying that

1. I think Houston would consider it. Jose Calderon would be a big upgrade at the point. The Rockets don’t seem to have McGrady in their long term plans. And that Houston have some but not max-contract cap flexibility, and do not seem to be planning on being big players in the 2010 free agency period, so taking on Jose’s + other contracts that last to 2011 isn’t too big of an ask.
2. Also that the deal would be a lot better for Houston if one of Evans/Banks were dropped in favour of Amir Johnson. Less contracts for 2011. So it’s basically Jose + $5 million of bad contracts in exchange for an expiring contract with some spare parts thrown in.
3. That I would prefer the Raptors to plan around 2011 rather than 2010. That moving Banks+Evans would come at too high a cost (lose valuable trade assets) with not enough gains. Better to wait for them expire since it’ll only be a year later and keep more options open for the future.

Anyway, that’s the background … then I began writing a new comment and soon enough I was off a long tangent wondering about the virtue behind this type of a salary dump. The comment got quite long so I decided to post it here instead.

The Trade Idea

• Toronto sends out — Jose Calderon + spare parts (Weems + Belinelli) + bad contracts (Evans + Banks)
• Toronto receives — Expiring contracts of an equal amount

I’m going to ignore the McGrady part of the discussion and focus solely on the cap space + how beneficial that cap space could be for the Raptors.

The Salary Dump

Raptors Salaries

(1) Bosh — $16.57 million
(2) Hedo — $9.8 million
(3) Bargnani — $8.5 million
(4) Jack — $4.6 million
(5) DeRozan — $2.45 million
Total — $41.92 million

Plus additional charges for open rosters spots + possibly a low lottery pick which would range from $3.33 million to $5 million in additional costs (cap holds).

That would take the Raps salaries to $45-47 million against a salary cap of $50.4 to $53.6 million which would leave them with $3 million to $8.6 million in cap space.

Side Note: Raptors own a lottery protected first round pick to the Miami Heat as part of the Shawn Marion trade. So if Toronto fails to make the playoffs they’ll keep their lottery pick but if Toronto makes the playoffs then they’ll lose their mid-first round draft pick.

Questions To Ponder

Please feel free to come up with your own answers to any of these questions … these are merely my opinions + assumptions + expectations

First Section

#1 — Can one reasonably expect to acquire a better player than Jose Calderon with that space?

(1) If the Raptors (a) lose their draft pick, and, (b) the cap ends up being as a high as possible … leaving the Raptors with max or near-maximum cap room. Let’s say $7.5 to $8.5 million.

It’s possible that the Raptors find an upgrade over Calderon if equipped with $8 million or so in cap space … but I think it’s far more likely that Toronto, even if the money is well spent, acquires a comparable talent rather than an upgrade.

(2) If the Raptors end up with their lottery pick or if the cap ends up being somewhat lower, then, Toronto will be left with the equivalent of the MLE to spend.

I don’t think the Raptors can reasonably expect to upgrade Jose Calderon with their MLE alone. And even if they could do so … they could still make that move with Jose still on the roster and then use Jose in a more beneficial trade instead. Moving Jose brings no additional (marginal at best) benefits to this MLE plan.

In summary, I doubt the Raptors manage to upgrade Calderon with this cap space. They could get a comparable talent to Jose … if they get the best possible scenario cap wise which is a substantial risk to take.

#2 — Can one expect to acquire a better player via free agency than the Raptors could get via a Calderon trade?

Tough to say. I imagine it would be a comparable opportunity.

Free agency would open up a higher risk/reward opportunity though.

#3 — After the Raptors sign someone with that cap space … where are they as a team? A similar .500 type ball club? Perhaps a 45-50 win team?

They’re still pretty much where they are.

A frontcourt of Andrea Bargnani, Chris Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu would maintain a lot of Toronto’s defensive + rebounding problems. Even if the Raptors acquired a superior fit (roster wise) than Calderon it will difficult to both make major inroads in that area with those players maintaining large roles on the roster + make a larger overall contribution than Calderon.

If Toronto were able to bring in a high quality defensive big man who plays 33-35 minutes a night you could make a better case for improvement. But as long as Bosh, Bargnani and Hedo are kept together that won’t happen.

#4 — From where the Raptors are then … how do they become a championship contender?

So, I think the Raptors would be in a comparable situation win/loss wise + a comparable situation trade asset wise.

They’ve made no major in-roads in the talent department + created no future opportunities to improve the talent.

Basically, they’re in the exact same spot as they are now. Just with somebody other than Jose. And it’s one where there’s no clear path for the Raptors to continue improving the roster with the eventual goal of contending for an NBA title. Same same, just different.

Second Section

#5 — Okay, but what if Chris Bosh is a free agent. What happens if he leaves? That would free up a lot of extra cap space and give the Raptors a lot of options? How does that change the picture?

The Raptors would gain an additional $16.57 million in cap space.

That would give the Raptors between $20-25 million in cap room.

#6 — Will any of the top tier free agents (Bron, Wade) be willing to sign in Toronto with Bosh and Jose gone? With only Hedo + Bargnani remaining? Will any second tier $10+ million free agents (Joe Johnson) sign with Toronto? Will third tier (Rudy Gay) free agents?

I don’t think any of the top tier or second tier free agents will consider joining the Raptors under those circumstances.

That leaves the Raptors with the third tier talent — generally players who have not made an All-Star game yet or who are borderline All-Stars. Who are young and have potential but are not finished products. The type of players you generally have to over-pay and who need to develop further to become good signings down the road.

Extreme examples

• Good cases — Gilbert Arenas + Carlos Boozer + Lamar Odom + Monta Ellis + Luol Deng
• Bad cases — Larry Hughes + Eddy Curry + Al Harrington + Jamal Crawford + Peja Stojakovic + Bobby Simmons

2010 Free Agency List

Here’s a few players who will be available in 2010 who the Raptors could look at:

• $12-15 million range — Carlos Boozer
• $10 million range — Rudy Gay, Luis Scola (30 years old), Josh Howard (team option), David Lee
• Under $10 million (mostly MLE types) — Anthony Morrow, Ronnie Brewer, Tyrus Thomas, Raymond Felton, Travis Outlaw, Mike Miller, Linas Kleiza, Carl Landry, Al Harrington, Darko Milicic, Channing Frye, Kyrylo Fesenko, Javaris Crittenton

#7 — So, the Raptors would be hard-pressed to upgrade Chris Bosh in free agency?

Yes, that’s what I think.

If the Raptors spend their money extremely well they could make a short term improvement. Say two $12 million guys or two $10 million guys plus a $5 million one. If they spent that money well they could become a better team in the short term … but they’d be severely light in top tier talent.

When your best player is a Hedo Turkoglu or a Caron Butler or a Monta Ellis … you’re team just isn’t going to go that far. This is a league that’s dominated by elite talents and they’re just not that.

Chris Bosh is a far superior talent (All-NBA caliber player) than anyone the Raptors can expect to sign (borderline All-Stars) in a free agency.

#8 — Play out an example

I think most would note Rudy Gay as a prime target. An athletic wing with oodles of unfulfilled potential who depending on his future development could become quite the player. So let’s say the Raptors nab him on a starting salary of $11 million per annum.

I like Scola as the best player on the list but he seems a bit old to be giving long money too on a large contract when you’re not likely to be contending for a title. So to replace Bosh, let’s say they sign David Lee for $9-10 million.

And with their leftover funds, assuming the Raps get max cap space of $25 million, the Raptors pick up Travis Outlaw for $5-6 million. Okay, so that would give the Raptors a lineup of:

Jarrett Jack + DeMar DeRozan + Rudy Gay + David Lee + Andrea Bargnani
Sixth man — Travis Outlaw

How good is that team? Borderline playoff team? Is that even better than the Grizzlies current top six players? Where does that team take the team over the next 2-4 years?

It’s still a middling short term situation + a lousy medium-to-long term situation for the Raptors. A comparable situation to the one they’re currently in … just with different players.

#9 — If the Raptors spend that money, and let’s say they spend it relatively well, are they an improved squad over Chris Bosh’s Raptors? Where are they as a team? Are they a .500 squad? Are they a 45-50 win squad?

Most likely, the Raptors are in a worse situation than they are now because they lost Bosh and were unable to replace him.

Second most likely, assuming the Raptors spend their money well and build a more balanced ball club, the Raptors are a comparable to slightly improve team.

Least likely, and extremely unlikely at that given the free agency options —  assuming the Raptors spend their money extremely well (home run type moves) — Toronto is now an improved side in the short term but has massive long term problems with no clear plan in how to make the next step and become a contender.

In summary, there’s no high quality play available here for the Raptors.

#10 — And, after that season, how do the Raptors go forward? How do they turn that nucleus into a contender?

If the Raptors spend the money they’re pretty much screwed.

A lot of long contracts with mixed trade value and a lack of quality prospects on the roster.

#11 — And if the Raptors don’t spend money?

No real chance that this one happens … but anyway … then they should begin a long drawn out rebuilding process and the Raptors could actually have a future down the road.

Of course, this means parting with Andrea Bargnani + Hedo Turkoglu because neither player fits into a rebuilding process.

Conclusions

I do not think moving Jose Calderon in an attempt to also move Banks + Evans + Belinelli from the Raptors books is a positive move for Toronto. Not as a stand alone move.

If the Raptors followed up that trade by also moving Jarrett Jack + one of Andrea Bargnani or Hedo Turkoglu — consequently creating enough guaranteed cap space to sign a max contract — the idea could have some legs to it.

However, the move by itself, looks like a poor play. The Raptors would be losing a good talent in Calderon just to remove two poor contracts which will be off the books a year later anyway … and they’ll be doing it for an option that is very likely to make the team worse and/or even if it plays out extremely well it will still leave the Raptors in a comparable situation to the one that they’re already in.

And finally, it doesn’t improve the Raptors options/future should Chris Bosh bolt in free agency.