I was reading Raptors HQ a few days ago and came across an interesting comment by Tinmann near the bottom of an Andrea Bargnani article
I will always go back to that ESPN poll with NBA GM’s prior to Bargnani’s draft. The main thing I remember is a question asked
“who would be the best players five years from now” and Bargnani was the first choice of a substantial number of the GM’s.
Another commentator, Assistant GM, recalled the same article + result, except remembered the article was on NBA.com. I had no recollection of the survey myself, but I was intrigued and wanted to see exactly how many GM’s did pick Bargnani as the best player from the draft in five year’s time.
So, I tracked down the article and here are the results:
Who will win the 2006-07 Rookie of the Year? Brandon Roy, Portland 44.4% Adam Morrison, Charlotte 25.9% 14.8%
Which rookie will be the best player in five years? Andrea Bargnani, Toronto 22.2% Tyrus Thomas, Chicago 22.2% 18.5% Brandon Roy, Portland 11.1%
Which rookie is most likely to be a “sleeper” success? Rajon Rondo, Boston 25.0% Thabo Sefolosha, Chicago 14.3% 10.7% Others receiving votes: Maurice Ager, Dallas, Hilton Armstrong, New Orleans/Oklahoma City, Ronnie Brewer, Utah, Rodney Carney, Philadelphia, Yakhouba Diawara, Denver, Jordan Farmar, L.A. Lakers, Jorge Garbajosa, Toronto, Rudy Gay, Memphis, Steve Novak, Houston, Brandon Roy, Portland, Mouhamed Sene, Seattle, Craig Smith, Minnesota
So, I reckon that 27 GM’s responded to the survey:
- Six of whom named Andrea Bargnani as the best player in five year’s time
- Six of whom named Ty Thomas as the best player in five year’s time
- Five of whom named Randy Foye as the best player in five year’s time
That accounts for 17 of the 27 votes.
- Brandon Roy was the next highest with just three votes — while 12 of the 27 votes picked him correctly as the Rookie of the Year
- The remaining seven votes were split between four players — LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, Adam Morrison and Shelden Williams
In conclusion, a fifth of the league picked Bargnani as the best player to come out of the draft with another fifth picking Tyrus Thomas. Only one tenth of the league choose Brandon Roy, who at this point is the consensus best player from that draft class.
Anyway, I just thought it was very interesting to stroll back down memory lane and check out a survey of league GM’s and what their thoughts were about the draft at that time.