How much is the five year MLE worth?
I don’t think the MLE gets decided until the cap is finalized, which is July 7th, but it figures to be worth around $5.5 million so we’ll use that as our ball park figure.
Year One: $5.5 million
Year Two: $5.94 million
Year Three: $6.15 million
Year Four: $6.93 million
Year Five: $7.48 million
Total: $32 million
Therefore, Marion will earn a contract worth $32 million over five years.
The figure of $21 million over three years has been mentioned frequently
Okay, so let’s say Marion gets his $21 million over three years.
That’s $11 million less in guaranteed money than what he’d be getting from the MLE. Marion would need to earn close to the MLE on his next contract just to break even.
Marion will also be 34 years old when he becomes a free agent. Also remember that his game, and his stats, have been in the decline for the last couple of years and that is game is based on his athleticism. We’re looking at a fairly large risk here.
And for what? The joy of playing for a worse team? One with very little hope of even winning a playoff series during his next contract? Instead of suiting up for a contender and getting the opportunity to play for a Championship. He’s taking $11 million less for this honour? That sound right to anyone else?
I don’t think folks are paying enough attention to how quickly an MLE contract increases each year, and how valuable that contract can become over a five year period. Financially, it’s a great offer for Marion and he’ll be able to accept it while playing for a much better team than Toronto.
I think it will take a longer contract from Toronto than three years in order to get Marion to stay. Say a five year $37-40 million contract (maybe more!).
Or, a larger contract at three years, say $26-28 million over three years.