Dampier’s Contract

I hadn’t considered the Mavs possibilities for their future since their playoff loss last season. There was no real reason to re-think the situation, nothing had changed after a fairly pedestrian summer. Instead I focused on now and how Carlisle’s changes where effecting their team.

But after a question in the comments section from Travis on whether or not the Mavs should trade Dirk in a comment on another post, I found myself pondering what possibilities where available to a Dirk led Mavs squad …. so I had to re-check over previous facts. In the course of doing so I came across a new piece of information, well not new in fact it’s five years old, but new to me because I didn’t know of it until now and that is Erick Dampier’s contract. The final season on Erick Dampier’s contract is non-guaranteed.

Upon learning this information I began searching for more information.

Is it really non-guaranteed? How much of it? 25%? 50%? 75%? 100%?

My interest peaked because those answers could drastically change the situation, and open up many more possibilities for the Mavericks to rebuild their team.

So I began searching and I came across two pieces of information from recent chats on Dallas Morning News by Eddie Sefko.

Here’s the first Q&A that caught my attention:

Curt Jones: I would like to see the Mavs make a move involving Dampier. What scenarios could you see with Damp

Eddie Sefko: While his contract once was considered an albatross, it’s no longer untradeable. The Mavs claim they get calls frequently about Dampier. But that’s the problem. If other teams want him, that means he’s doing something good and has some value. The Mavericks aren’t actively pursuing any deals involving Dampier. But, of course, if things aren’t going well in February, all bets are off

Who is calling for Dampier? And what are they offering? I’d love to know more about those trade requests.

Here’s the second Q&A from a chat almost two weeks prior to today. This is copy and paste from a separate site (Denton Record Chronicle? Is that the same as Dallas Morning News? I’m confused) that marked down the whole chat

Q: I was wondering if you have the details on Erick Dampier’s contract? I’ve heard the last year is not fully guaranteed and that there are incentives he has to reach to make it fully vested. Can you help?

Sefko: Of course we can. Sort of. The best way to put it is that Dampier’s contract is incentive-guaranteed. He needs to be an All-Star to have it fully guaranteed. And failing that, which it appears he will, it’s possible the whole thing could be non-guaranteed.

I presume there is a small buyout, but I haven’t been able to uncover that yet. We’ll keep you posted.

Sefko doesn’t sound completely certain what is happening with Dampier’s contract, but he does seem to have part of the gist down there and that’s very interesting information.

If there were a buyout, whether it’s a $2mil or a $5mil or an $8mil buyout could go a long way to deciding how much additional flexibility the Mavs get under this scenario.

Dampier is schedule to make a little over $13million in his final year.

Also a third interesting comment, from the second link, on the Q&A:

Q: So we’re all disgusted by the Devin Harris trade. It’s Kevin Johnson all over again, getting traded from Cleveland to Phoenix, where he becomes great. With that said, we need to realize that the Mavericks are OK. Not great. But probably a 50-win team and maybe a first-round playoff winner. We also need to focus on next year. My concern is there aren’t enough young, quality players on this team. Could you enlighten me on what the cap space for next summer looks like and what players realistically could fit into the plan?

Sefko: There are not as many marquee names next summer as there will be in 2010, and all signs point to the Mavericks slashing their payroll to do something big in 2010.

Next summer, they won’t have any money under the cap. They will have the mid-level exception, and that’s it. Best option: Raid Utah’s closet, the door to which could swing open for players such as Mehmet Okur, Carlos Boozer and, most intriguing, Kyle Korver.

But, again, I don’t see the Mavericks loading up a long-term contract next summer at the risk of losing potential free-agent cap space in 2010.

The first quote, the investigatory trade discussions, would also indicate that the final year of his deal is non-guaranteed because very few squads would be willing to take that contract otherwise.

Edit: I came across another source, albeit a terribly unreliable one, in Hoopsworld

Mavericks center Erick Dampier has incentives to make his $13.1 million stick, but presently his money has no salary protection.

Also

Should Dirk Nowitzki opt out and the Dallas Mavericks shed the non-guaranteed salaries of Josh Howard and Erick Dampier, they could be one of the biggest shoppers in the league.

The Summer of 2010

Alright, so let’s switch gears and look at the Mavericks situation and what this means for their 2010 opportunities.

Dallas have a few long term contracts

• Dampier is under contract until 2011 and is due $37mil. His final year, 2010/11, is non-guaranteed to some degree (perhaps totally)
• Josh Howard’s contract also ends in 2011 and he’s due £33mil over that period. His final year is a team option.
• Jason Terry is owed $38mil over the next four years, ending in 2012. It appears that his final season is also non-guaranteed but again I do not know to what degree.
• DeSagana Diop is due over $34mil over the next five seasons, with his contract ending in 2013. The final year is a player option.
• Dirk Nowitzki has three years left on his contract and will be paid $60mil over that period. His final season is a player option and he’s likely to opt out in order to get one final massive contract in 2010.
• Jason Kidd is in the final year of his deal at $21 million. He’ll be a free agent this summer.
• Jerry Stackhouse has two years left ($14mil) on his contract but is nearly an expiring contract because his second year is non-guaranteed except for $2mil.

Let’s play out an ideal scenario and say all of Damp’s contract is not guaranteed and that they can waive him in 2010 and use that cap space on a free agent.

Under those circumstances, the Mavs could get themselves into a position where they have only $17mil on the books – Jason Terry and DeSagana Diop. Dirk would be a free agent and would command somewhere around $20mil a season so that figure would be closer to $37mil for the Mavs. So, that would leave Dallas with $20+mil to spend.

That would also mean that Dallas decline a team option on Josh Howard who was due under $12mil, which is a very reasonable contract for a player of his caliber. If the Mavs choose to keep Howard, that would bring their salaries up to $49mil.

It’s hard to tell what the cap will be in 2010 so I can’t give an exact figure of what Dallas would have available to them. The cap is currently $58.7mil and has been increasing by about $2.5mil per season in recent years, so it’s likely somewhere around $63mil … that would leave Dallas with $14mil which isn’t enough to acquire a max contract free agent.

Alright, let’s pause for a moment here and consider two important issues:

Firstly, one can see immediately why a fully guaranteed Erick Dampier contract wipes them out in free agency. Too much money, limits too many options.

Secondly, we can also see how much his buyout figure (worded differently – how much is guaranteed?) could define the Mavs options. If it’s only $2mil it’s manageable. If it’s $6-8mil it could hinder them in a serious way.

Going back to Josh Howard, the Mavs don’t necessarily have to keep Howard around.

• One wonders what would it take for Dallas to let him leave? It’s a big risk. How much comfort would they need to take that risk?
• Plus, if Dallas loses both Kidd and Howard, how good of a replacement does that one max contract player need to be in order for the Mavs to be a legit title contender? Do the Mavs need Howard to be their third star in this scenario? I think they do under most possibilities.

Conclusions

Dampier’s contract appears to be non-guaranteed but we do not know to what degree, and the answer to that could go a long way to deciding how advantageous this situation is for the Mavericks.

This non-guaranteed contract could wedge open a door for Dallas, and allowe them to rebuild a new look title contending team around Dirk Nowitzki.

Ergo, the Mavericks should not blow up their squad but they should be gently positioning it towards 2010. That means looking to trade Jason Terry and looking at your options with Diop. A little more wiggle room would be great, especially because it makes the Josh Howard situation more manageable. They should also be reluctant/hesitant in taking on any contracts that stretch beyond 2010, which in particular will effect their MLE next summer.

Josh Howard’s cap friendly deal, plus Dirk Nowitzki, gives the Mavs the ability to make a very enticing offer to a top tier free agent. They have an achievable opportunity in front of them and could build one final contender for their star player Dirk Nowitzki.

The Mavericks do have a future. A trio of Dirk, new player (Joe Johnson? Dwyane Wade?), and Josh Howard could form a core of a title contending squad. Plus Jason Terry or a replacement at a smaller cost. That’s very interesting.

So to conclude, I’m vastly more positive about the Mavericks future and the virtue of Dirk remaining on their squad. They should remain patient and try to take advantage of their 2010 possibilities.

Update: Marc Stein adds this information on his contract — so that guaranteed portion may be down to minutes and not an All-Star berth, although that changes nothing because both are unlikely to happen

Erick Dampier is essentially entering the final year of his deal, at $12.1 million, because he has roughly zero shot to log the 2,100 minutes required in 2009-10 to make his $13 million salary in 2010-11 guaranteed.