NBA Roundtable

Hypothetical: No Perkins, No Bynum

In 2010 NBA Playoffs on June 15, 2010 at 10:02 pm

Starters

  • C — Sheed vs Pau
  • PF — Garnett vs Odom
  • SF — Pierce vs Artest
  • SG — Ray vs Kobe
  • PG — Rondo vs Fisher

I think the Celtics have an advantage in the backcourt are fairly even in the frontcourt.

Maybe a slight advantage there too depending on how well Sheed plays defensively. Pierce will also have an easier time against Artest without Bynum back there + with the threat of Sheed’s jumper on the pick and roll/pop. So, two non-guaranteed variables that have a decent chance of coming true that could further help the Celtics case.

Reserves

  • Reserve Big — Davis vs Powell/Mbenga
  • Reserve Wing — TA vs Walton/Brown
  • Reserve Guard — Nate vs Farmar

I think the Celtics have an advantage with their backup big man and potentially on the wing.

Talent wise, the guards are fairly even but both players are inconsistent so it could be anything. Nate is the more explosive player.

Summary

So, overall, I think the Celtics would have a good advantage versus the Lakers if neither Bynum or Perkins played.

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  1. Dave,

    The loss of Kendrick Perkins is huge for the Celtics and will now end up costing them this series.

    Since Phil Jackson finally decided to play Josh Powell in last night’s game Game 6, and use Sasha Vujacic more, the Lakers’ bench is actually superior to the Celtics.

    The major problem for LA in the first 5 games of the series has been Phil’s refusal to give any run to Powell and his improper use of both Vujacic and Walton.

    LA is the better team … as long as Phil coaches properly … and will consistently out-rebound Boston when the C’s are forced to go without the services of K-Perkins.

  2. Hey Khandor,

    I think the Lakers need a solid 20 minutes from Bynum to be a substantial favourite in Game Seven. 15-17 minutes might get the job done but the margin for error is a lot smaller.

    If Bynum can’t go, or is useless out there, I think the Celtics have the advantage.

    —————————————————-

    In terms of the two teams benches, I think LA has the superior bench too (even enough on the perimeter + big advantage with Odom) … but if Bynum is out and Odom starts, I think LA’s bench becomes vulnerable and I would give Boston the advantage.

  3. Dave,

    If Perkins and Bynum are BOTH out:

    STARTERS
    1 Fisher vs R-Allen [adv]
    2 Kobe [adv] vs Rondo
    3 Artest vs Pierce
    4 Odom vs Garnett
    5 Gasol [adv] vs Wallace
    ————————-
    KEY SUBS
    6 Farmar vs Robinson
    7 Vujacic [adv] vs T-Allen
    8 Powell vs Davis
    =========================
    RESERVES
    9 Brown vs Daniels
    10 Walton vs Finley
    11 Mbenga vs Williams
    12 ? [Morrison?] vs Scalabrine

  4. Hey Khandor,

    The Backcourt

    I would give the Celtics an advantage in the backcourt versus the Lakers. We agree with the Fisher vs Kobe matchup but I think Rondo can do a lot more than he has been doing recently. He just needs to get out in the open court more offensively (no advantage in halfcourt offense) + concentrate more on creating extra possessions with his defense and rebounding. If Rondo does those things, which he is more than capable of doing against Kobe and the rest of the Lakers, then Boston has an advantage in the backcourt (Ray + Rondo vs Kobe + Fisher).

    The Bench

    I wouldn’t give Vujacic the advantage against Tony Allen. I think TA’s defense + rebounding allows him to have a larger impact on the game than Vujacic’s one dimensional shooting. It’ll also be easier for TA without Perkins in the lineup because he’ll be playing alongside big men who can shoot the ball making his lack of jump shooting less of an issue. So, I would swing that matchup the other way.

    I would also give Glen Davis the advantage over Josh Powell. He’s a far superior defender, a better rebounder and a better offensive player. Powell can make him work harder but Davis will still outplay him by a good margin.

    The Big Men

    I think Gasol’s advantage over Rasheed is comparable to Garnett’s advantage over Odom. I would consider the matchups here to be even.

    Note: I am currently giving Rasheed a lot more credit than I normally would due to his much improved play in the playoffs + Finals. His defense has been far superior than the regular season (interior defense, toughness, quicker rotations, better P’n’R defense albeit still vulnerable there) and lately his rebounding has improved considerably too. His offense is comparable.

    If I were judging Sheed on his whole season’s work, rather than his recent play, I would give LA the advantage in the starting bigs … but I’m going to side with Rasheed’s improved form and rely on him (expect him) to continue that for the rest of this series.

    And, of course, then follow that up by bottoming out again next season like the suspect player that he truly is.

    Glen Davis has also done a very good job defensively against Odom and Garnett has done an excellent job on Pau (except for Game One).

    So, in both of Boston’s main big man combinations against LA’s main big man combination … I think the battles are fairly even.

    Like yourself, I would consider the Artest vs Pierce battle fairly even with Artest making Pierce inefficient enough to keep the fight even on most nights.

    ————————————————————–

    Anyways, it looks like Bynum is set to play in Game Seven so the matchups will be different than this hypothetical.

    Any serviceable performance from Bynum (15-20 minutes) swings the big man advantage into the Lakers favour + a good performance (in 20-25 minutes) gives them a large advantage over Boston.

    The Lakers are the team to beat in Game Seven.

  5. Dave,

    Rondo, today, isn’t the same player who dominated the early-to-middle part of this series. Although the C’s won the title 2 years ago, he is still a very young player and the Lakers’ Specific Defensive Tactics vs him are now “in his head”, so-to-speak.

    Rondo + Allen can be better than Fisher + Kobe … when playing in Boston but not in LA, unless, of course, the referees decide to hang early foul trouble on Kobe. Short of that, there is not way the C’s duo will outperform their counterparts on LA, in this evening’s Game 7.

    Vujacic’s Made 3’s are a huge part of the Lakers’ offense when they play unselfishly.

    Tony Allen is a solid defensive player and rebounder … but, on the road, in Game 7, his impact will be muted, in comparison with the ripple effects of a timely Made 3 by The Machine, who has only recently been given his release from purgatory :-).

    Expect Vujacic to play well this evening.

    Despite what many think … and, within the confines of the Lakers’ system [i.e. offensive/defensive/rebounding], Josh Powell is actually a much better basketball player than Glen Davis, as a Big Man coming off the bench in a game like this one. Powell is emotionally stable; Davis is not. When things go awry this evening for the Celtics, Davis will be one their players who “turtles.”

    The Sheed who has played as a “back-up” to Perkins in this series is no more, unfortunately … because Perkins is no more.

    Expect the Celtics to play well in the earlier stages of this evening’s game … but, as it progrsses, the Lakers will gradually begin to dominate, playing at home, in front of a consistently raucous crowd.

    Right now the wagering line for this event is sitting at LA -7. If that number holds steady until tip-off, then, there is a fairly good chance that the Lakers will eventually end up winning tonight’s game by open lengths over the Celtics.

    There are only 2 caveats.

    #1. Kobe needs to stay out of foul trouble.
    #2. Gasol needs to stay out of foul trouble.

    If they can both do that, the Lakers will be win the NBA Championship this evening.

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