NBA Roundtable

2010/11 Miami Heat After Max Contract Sign and Trade

In Free Agency, General NBA, Trade Talk on April 4, 2010 at 4:30 pm

Question: How much money would the Miami Heat have left to spend in free agency if they made a sign and trade with the Toronto for Chris Bosh?

Okay, let’s play out a scenario …

Chris Bosh sign and trade with the Miami Heat.

Pat Riley trades Michael Beasley + 2011 first round draft pick + large trade exception to the Toronto Raptors for Chris Bosh.

Miami’s Salaries

Players on the books

  • Dwyane Wade — $16.57 million
  • Chris Bosh — $16.57 million
  • Daequan Cook — $2.17 million
  • Mario Chalmers — $850k

Sub-Total = $36.16 million

Other Costs

  • James Jones has a partially guaranteed contract. Even if Miami waives him, and they will waive him, they’ll still be on the hook for $1.86 million.
  • Two 2010 First Round Draft Picks — Miami will own their first round pick and likely the Toronto Raptors first round pick. That would have them selecting at #15 and #18. Those picks come with a cap hold of $1.4 and $1.2 million respectively.
  • Player Option — Joel Anthony has a player option on his contract worth $850k which he is a virtual lock to pickup.
  • Open Roster Spots — Miami has seven players on their books at this stage so they would have five open roster spots amounting to a cap hold of $2.38 million.

Sub-Total = $7.69 million

Overall Total = $43.85 million

Note: If Daequan Cook was included in the trade, Miami would subtract that $2.17 million from their payroll but add on an additional cap hold for the extra empty roster spot. That would give them a new total of $42.15 million. An extra $1.7 million.

The Cap

The NBA’s salary cap is likely to be around $53-54 million.

Ergo, the Miami Heat would have around $9-to-$10 million to spend.

Quick Look At The Roster

  • An MVP caliber perimeter player and starting shooting guard in Dwyane Wade
  • An All-NBA big man capable of playing either big man position in Chris Bosh
  • A potential starting point guard in Mario Chalmers
  • A fourth or fifth big in the depth chart in Joel Anthony
  • Two mid-first round draft picks of unknown position and ability

Miami could have at least three starting positions and up to six of their top nine rotation spots filled at this point.

Roster Needs

  • A starting big man to play alongside Chris Bosh … preferably an above average defender and rebounder
  • A starting small forward who can be a stopper defensively and hit open jump shots from the perimeter
  • A primary backup point guard
  • Two reserve wing players — a primary and secondary backup wing
  • A primary backup big man
  • Fill out the rest of the roster — third string point, fifth wing in the depth chart, fifth and sixth bigs in the depth chart — for a total of 14 players.

The two draft picks could quite easily end up filling one (or two) of the wing requirements and possibly one of the big man spots.

Free Agency

Without knowing Miami’s draft picks it’s hard to make this more precise but we’ll give it a whirl and see where it lands us.

Three main options:

  1. Spend the $10 million on one player who is a notch below an All-Star or a borderline All-Star talent
  2. Spend $7-to-$8.5 million on one player and the remainder on a second player
  3. Spend $6 million on a quality big man + use the remaining $4 million to find a quality veteran wing player or use it on a solid backup big men. Or $5 million and $5 million.

Option One — Possible Targets

  • Manu Ginobili
  • David Lee — Miami would need New York to decide to go in a different direction to have any hope of out-bidding the Knicks for Lee
  • Rudy Gay — unlikely to be enough to pry Gay away from the Grizzlies. A $12 million per annum could make Memphis uncomfortable though.

There is no difference between a $9 and a $10 million signing when it comes to Miami’s options. They would be left with minimum contract signings either way.

Option Two — Possible Targets

  • Luis Scola
  • Brendan Haywood

Both of those players would cost somewhere around $8 million per annum leaving the Heat with the equivalent of the LLE to offer to an additional player.

Option Three — Possible Targets

  • Big Men — Udonis Haslem + Marcus Camby + Jermaine O’Neal + Amir Johnson + Louis Amundson + Tyrus Thomas
  • Wings — Anthony Morrow + Ronnie Brewer + Mike Miller + Quentin Richardson + Travis Outlaw + Rasual Butler + Linas Kleiza + Josh Childress + Raja Bell + Josh Howard + Kyle Korver + Dorell Wright

Best Options

  1. Manu Ginobili
  2. Udonis Haslem + one of (1) Travis Outlaw (2) Rasual Butler (3) Mike Miller in that order of preference
  3. Luis Scola + the equivalent of an LLE signing
  4. Tyrus Thomas + one of (1) Travis Outlaw (2) Rasual Butler (3) Mike Miller in that order of preference
  5. Rudy Gay @ $12 million
  6. David Lee
  7. Brendan Haywood
  8. Amir Johnson + one of (1) Travis Outlaw (2) Rasual Butler (3) Mike Miller in that order of preference
  9. Louis Amundson + one of (1) Travis Outlaw (2) Rasual Butler (3) Mike Miller in that order of preference
  10. Marcus Camby + one of (1) Travis Outlaw (2) Rasual Butler (3) Mike Miller in that order of preference
  11. Jermaine O’Neal + one of (1) Travis Outlaw (2) Rasual Butler (3) Mike Miller in that order of preference

I think the second option is the most likely direction for the Miami Heat so let’s continue out our example here.

Miami’s New Roster

Starting five

  • Starting point guard — Mario Chalmers
  • Starting off guard — Dwyane Wade
  • Starting small forward — Travis Outlaw/Rasual Butler/Mike Miller
  • Starting power forward — Udonis Haslem
  • Starting center — Chris Bosh

The rest of the bench will be filled out by

  • Daequan Cook
  • Undetermined mid-first round draft pick
  • Undetermined mid first round draft pick
  • Joel Anthony
  • A bunch of minimum contract players

Possible draft day targets

  • Big Men — Epke Udoh + Larry Sanders
  • Wings — Xavier Henry + Paul George + Damion James
  • Guards — Willie Warren

Possible Minimum Contract Targets

  • Guards — Carlos Arroyo, Roger Mason Jr, Anthony Johnson, Anthony Carter, Eddie House, Jason Williams, Royal Ivey, Travis Diener
  • Wings — Keith Bogans + Bobby Simmons + Raja Bell + Rodney Carney + Larry Hughes + Sasha Pavlovic + Trenton Hassell + Damien Wilkins + Antoine Wright
  • Big Men — James Singleton + Etan Thomas + Rasho Nesterovic + Shelden Williams + Johan Petro + Brian Skinner + Adonal Foyle + Brian Scalabrine
  • There are also a few other players who could fall through the cracks and be available for the minimum (Raja Bell, Kwame Brown, Al Harrington, Craig Smith, Hakim Warrick) but let’s ignore them for now.

Two possible Miami rosters

(1) Drafting Epke Udoh and Willie Warren

Starting Five — Chalmers + Wade + Butler + Haslem + Bosh
Bench — Warren + Cook + Bogans + Udoh + Anthony
Deep Bench — Diener + Pavlovic + Williams + Foyle

(2) Drafting Larry Sanders and Damion James

Starting Five — Chalmers + Wade + Butler + Haslem + Bosh
Bench — Arroyo + Bogans + James + Sanders + Thomas
Deep Bench — Diener + Cook + Scalabrine + Anthony

Conclusions

#1 — Miami figures to have $21-to-$22 million in cap space this summer. If they acquire Bosh in a sign and trade with Beasley heading the other way they’ll have about $10 million more to spend.

#2 — Miami should try to include Daequan Cook in the sign and trade should they acquire someone like Chris Bosh in that manner. That added $1.8 million is valuable flexibility. More valuable than what Cook provides as a player.

#3 — Miami can spend this by going after (1) one high impact player, or, one impact player + one cheap reserve, or, (3) two midlevel signings

#4 — Miami has two mid-first round draft picks and should be able to acquire two players who can crack their rotation. There are a couple of big men, several wing players and one guard available that they should be targeting. How well they utilize these two draft picks will go a long way to deciding on how much depth Miami has.

#5 — If Miami (1) spends their $10 million (2) drafts well and picks up two rotation players (3) makes some good minimum contract signings … Miami should be able to have a deep and talented roster

#6 — Next summer, 2011, Miami will have their MLE and LLE available to them. That will give them Chalmers + Wade + Bosh + $10 million of signings + MLE + LLE + two mid-first round draft picks to build a roster around. There is no excuse for Miami not to have a deep and talented team by 2011/12.

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