NBA Roundtable

Micheal Redd Injury (Out For Season)

In General NBA on January 11, 2010 at 5:30 pm

Michael Redd left the Lakers-Bucks game late in the first half with an injury to his left knee. The same he injured last season.

First Update

A Michael Redd update

Bucks guard Michael Redd left the game in Los Angeles on Sunday night with left knee soreness and had to be helped off the court.

Redd was scheduled to have a magnetic resonance imaging exam in Phoenix on Monday morning, and his playing status was to be updated later in the day.

Redd has struggled with injuries to his left knee during the past 12 months. He suffered torn anterior cruciate and medial collateral ligaments in the knee during a game last Jan. 24 at the Bradley Center, and he missed the remainder of the season.

He underwent surgery for that injury in early March last year but was able to return in time for training camp.

In the second game of the current season, he suffered a strained left patella tendon and missed the next nine games. He returned in San Antonio in late November but was ineffective in three games and returned to the inactive list for the next seven games.

Okay, so we should know more about how serious an injury this is later in the day. Hopefully it’s only a minor injury.

Redd’s Play

Michael Redd was averaging 11.9ppg, 3rpg and 2.2apg in 27.3 minutes a night. He was only shooting 35% from the field and 30% from behind the arc for a true shooting percentage of 44.4%. Add this to his porous defense and you have a player who’s doing a lot of damage to his own team.

The lack of contributions Milwaukee has received from Michael Redd is the main reason why their playoff chances are decreasing.

Second Update

JSOnline reports

A basketball source has confirmed that Michael Redd suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament and torn medial collateral ligament in his left knee on Sunday night in Los Angeles. The injury will sideline the Bucks shooting guard for the rest of the season.

The injury is the same one that Redd suffered nearly one year ago, on Jan. 24 against Sacramento at the Bradley Center. He suffered a torn ACL and torn MCL in his left knee on that night and was lost for the rest of the season.

On Sunday, Redd planted on his left foot as he made a move in the lane during the Bucks’ 95-77 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers at the Staples Center. He immediately was helped off the court.

Redd had a magnetic resonance imaging exam done in Phoenix on Monday, and the test revealed the ligament tears.

Terrible news for Michael Redd.

Consequences for Milwaukee

Trade Value

Milwaukee cannot trade Redd this season. That means he’ll be on the Bucks roster heading into next season. He will have little to no trade value, due to his injuries, outside of his expiring contract at that point. He’ll have to prove himself on the court to improve his trade value.

So there’s a good chance that he’ll finish his contract in Milwaukee + Redd is no longer an option for a contender to snap up on the cheap this year to bolster their chances of winning a title.

Addition by Subtraction

Michael Redd was playing very poor basketball this season. He was horribly inefficient offensively with his scoring and shooting ability (his best strength) + wasn’t contributing much through his rebounding or passing + was very poor defensively. Overall, Redd was having a large negative effect on the court for Milwaukee.

So, the Bucks will be better off without Redd in the lineup. Similar to the Rockets and McGrady last season only Redd was playing far worse this year than McGrady was last year.

Early Season Expectations

Prior to the season, I liked the Bucks chances of making the playoffs becaues of the following areas:

  • A very good defensive team
  • A very good rebounding team
  • Strong play led by Andrew Bogut + Michael Redd
  • A supporting cast full of decent-to-good role players. The likes of Carlos Delfino, Mbah a Moute, Luke Ridnour, Ersan Ilyasova, Hakim Warrick and Kurt Thomas.
  • I thought Michael Redd’s strong offensive play + the offensive contributions of his teammates would allow the Bucks to be poor-to-decent offensive team. Below average offensively but much better than the likes of the Charlotte Bobcats.
  • I had no idea what to expect from Brandon Jennings. Scott Skiles confidence in him made me think he could at least be a useful role player.

Without Michael Redd’s scoring contributions the Bucks have been greatly weakened. I don’t think the Bucks are capable of playing .500 ball without him on the court + performing to his past levels. I don’t think the Bucks are capable of replacing his expected offensive contributions and I don’t think they’ll be able to make up that lack of scoring in other areas.

Several Bucks Statistical Notes

Luke Ridnour is currently the only Bucks player posting an above average true shooting percentage. They don’t even have anyone in the mediocre range after him. Second best is Hakim Warrick at 52.4%. Only four players, including Warrick, are above 50%.

Brandon Jennings is now down to 49% after his hot shooting start to the season but he has made solid contributions in other areas (defensively, passing, rebounding).

The Bucks are already fifth in defensive efficiency (103 per 100 possessions) behind the Lakers, Celtics, Bobcats and Cavaliers. It will be difficult to improve much further on that. So I wouldn’t expect much of a defensive improvement without Redd in the lineup.

The Bucks have been outrebounded on the season by 59 boards. So a negative rebounding differential of 1.7. They can improve in this area without Redd but that improvement is somewhat unlikely and very unlikely to be a major source of improvement given that Redd’s most likely replacements are (1) Charlie Bell (2) Jodie Meeks (3) more two point guard lineups with Ridnour + Jennings.

If the Bucks played bigger by switching Delfino to SG and playing him alongside Mbah a Moute and Ilyasova they could make major inroads on the glass but I expect Delfino to be kept at SF. Delfino is currently playing 25 minutes, Mbah a Moute is getting 27 minutes and Ilyasova is also getting 25 minutes a night. The Bucks could increase their minutes to 32 apiece and limit the number of available off guard minutes to 32 which could then be spread out amongst Bell, Meeks and Ridnour respectively.

Jodie Meeks is the best option to replace Michael Redd’s lost scoring but his inefficiency + lack of non-scoring contributions will render most of his point production as irrelevant. Likely even negative, a negative effect on the team.

Summary

The Bucks are in a bad situation due to Michael Redd’s poor play and/or injury situation. They are going to be hard pressed to maintain their playoff hopes and will likely slip out of playoff contention as the year moves on.

The Bucks could benefit greatly from a midseason trade. Possibly trading a future draft pick. Or some variety of expiring contracts. If they solved that shooting guard hole without creating another hole elsewhere … they could easily re-establish themselves as a club capable of playing .500 ball.

Link: Good article in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on Redd’s injury and how his career may hang in the balance after having a second anterior cruciate ligament injury.

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