NBA Roundtable

Korver Out For Six Weeks

In General NBA on October 28, 2009 at 11:52 am

The Salt Lake Tribune reports

As Kyle Korver prepares to undergo surgery today in New York to remove a bone spur from his left knee, the Jazz could be without the three-point shooting guard for the season’s first six weeks.

The Jazz have yet to set a timetable for his return, but Korver is believed to be operating under the assumption that he will be out for that long.

If Korver were to miss six weeks, the Jazz likely would be without both him and C.J. Miles (thumb surgery) for all of November.

Link — SLT report on CJ Miles’ injury

Utah Light

Utah are light on wings

  • Ronnie Brewer
  • Andrei Kirilenko
  • Kyle Korver – Out injured for six weeks
  • CJ Miles – Out injured for at least the month of November
  • Wes Matthews

So Utah only has two proven players on the wing and one of those is really a power forward playing out of position. And, the Jazz have an undrafted rookie who survived training camp.

I didn’t watch any of the Jazz preseason games but I heard/read good things about Wes Matthews. He plays hard + plays smart. Stays within himself and doesn’t try to do things he can’t do, consequently plays fairly efficiently. Prior to the draft the reports on him were fairly mixed … so I don’t know what to expect from him game wise or minutes wise.

I’d expect the Jazz to experiment more with (1) Paul Millsap at the small forward position, and, (2) With Deron Williams at the two guard spot playing alongside Eric Maynor or Ronnie Price.

In summary, I expect that Jazz to go with Kirilenko and Brewer in their usual starting roles. Then play Wes Matthews as their first sub off the bench, and keep him in that role assuming he plays well. Then use either Deron or Millsap out of position for 5-15 minutes a night as the second wing off the bench.

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  1. Sloan is a great coach.
    It will be very interesting to see how he decides to play off the start.
    He might go very big in the 2nd quarter against other teams subs?

  2. hey dave,

    i read an article which mentions that the NBA is trying to determine a better way to keep games meaningful for teams in the lottery to avoid tanking. The article mentions that they could have a mini tournament with teas 8-15 for the final playoff spot. While that idea seems interesting, if I was a GM for a terrible team in a year of an elite talent, I would find the benefit of the playoffs (and likely losing in the first round) not worth as much as getting the draft pick. At the expense of truly terrible teams, wouldnt the most efficient options be to just put all the teams in a draw with each team having equal odds? There would be no absolutely no incentive to tank.

  3. sorry, i mean all the lottery teams. The only gap that would appear would be for the teams on the fringe of the playoffs.

    Here’s a thought, the first overall goes to a lottery team in a fair draw, the second overall goes to a playoff team in a fair draw, the third and fourth overall picks respectively are given to a lottery team in a fair draw. Afterwards, the next highest pick would go to the team with the worst record so the lowest the worst team could have is the 5th overall pick. The reason that the second overall pick would go to the playoffs teams is to ensure that a fringe playoff team wouldnt tank just to get the first overall pick (in my opinion possible second overall pick + guaranteed players = possible first overall pick) and lets all be honest, we all love dynasties. The third and fourth pick should also be distributed to the lottery teams randomly because the is still significant value to those picks and teams might still tank to get them. The fifth pick will be distributed to the worst team because a team could still get a good player but the incentive to tank for it is not too great. What are your thoughts?

  4. sorry my grammar is awful, i meant to write

    “second overall pick + guaranteed playoffs”

  5. Hey Dino Gunners,

    I actually don’t think tanking is a problem in the NBA.

    Sure, it happens every now and again but I don’t think it’s rampant or causing any harm to the league.

    I like the current system. I prefer the worst teams having the best opportunity to improve, rather than, good teams getting better at the cost of bad teams (which is how I’d view giving lottery picks to playoff teams relative to the current way of life).

    Update: I was reading more on that idea from Denver’s GM Mark Warkentien – the mini-tournament — not a fan of that idea either. I don’t think tanking is an issue on teams between #8-#15 and I don’t like any idea that makes the playoffs longer than they already are.

    Then again, I hate change so I’m probably not the person to ask!

    Lottery Odds

    Here’s a quote from the Wikipedia page for the NBA Draft lottery

    1. 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
    2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
    3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
    4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
    5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
    6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
    7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
    8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
    9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
    10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
    11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
    12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
    13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
    14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

    Note: Those odds are for the first pick alone, teams can win picks #1-#3 so the chances of winning a top three pick are roughly three times that figure. Wikipedia has another table (too large to fit here) just below that quote with the exact figures for each team’s final position in the league.

    The chances of a team just outside the playoffs (say the four or five teams directly outside of the playoffs #10-#14) getting a top pick are minimal. It’s not worth tanking for those types of odds.

    The NBA has already lowered the incentives so drastically that it makes it incredibly unlikely for any teams in those positions to benefit from tanking. Consequently, the teams don’t tank or at least I don’t think those teams tank.

    Relegation

    Relegation is the only system that I’ve come across that would effectively make the worst teams play as hard as humanly possible in the close stretch of the season.

    And I don’t think that system could work in the NBA due to the draft system + salary cap.

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