The main issue with the Raptors remaining summer spending isn’t this year’s luxury tax threshold, but the 2010/11 mark. That is due to three main issues (1) Bargnani’s extension (2) Pay increases for top earners (3) The likelihood of the luxury tax line falling in a large way.
So, let’s have a quick look at the Raptors payroll for this coming season and the 2010/11 season … and try to figure out just how close the Raptors are to the luxury tax in both seasons, and how much they can spend
The Raptors salaries
- Chris Bosh – $15.78 million
- Hedo Turkoglu ~ $9 million (ball park figure)
- Jose Calderon – $8.22 million
- Andrea Bargnani – $6.53 million
- Reggie Evans – $4.96 million
- Marcus Banks – $4.55 million
- Jarrett Jack ~ $4.5 million (ball park figure)
- Demar DeRozan – $2.28 million
- Roko Ukic – $1.45 million
- Devean George – $1.6 million
- Antoine Wright -$1.8 million
- Quincy Douby – $855k
- Patrick O’Bryant – $855k
That is a total of $62.4 million. That would leave the Raptors with $7.5 million of cap room below the luxury tax threshold.
Bryan Colangelo has recently said that the Raptors have $7.1 million left to spend — so my figures are off by $400k somewhere — before the Raptors hit the luxury tax threshold.
Raptors Possible Summer Spending
In his arsenal, Colangelo has:
- MLE ~~ roughly $1.3-1.4 million left after signing Jarrett Jack
- LLE — $1.9 million
- Bird Rights — Carlos Delfino
If Colangelo does sign Delfino and Rasho — two players heavily linked to the Raptors — for $5 million and $2 million respectively, that would end the Raptors spending for the summer.
Who is on the books for the 2010/11 season?
- Chris Bosh ~ $16.57 million to $18 million — 30% of the cap, or 105% of his previous year’s pay, whichever figure is greater
- Hedo Turkoglu ~ $9.72 million (ball park figure)
- Jose Calderon – $9 million
- Andrea Bargnani ~ $8.5 million (ball park figure)
- Reggie Evans – $5.08 million
- Marcus Banks – $4.85 million
- Jarrett Jack – $4.86 million (ball park figure)
- Roko Ukic – $1.45 million
- Demar DeRozan – $2.45 million
Let’s use the lowest possible figure for Chris Bosh’s contract, since the luxury tax is only a major concern if the cap falls hard and fast. So with Bosh down for $16.57 million, the Raptors payroll is $62.48 million with only nine players on the books.
Other possible costs
- 2010 lottery pick — If the Raptors make the playoffs, the pick goes to Miami as part of the Shawn Marion trade. So this is either a lottery pick or no pick at all. If it were a lottery pick, it would likely be in the #10-#14 range and cost somewhere between $1.5 and $2.16 million.
- Carlos Delfino — Delfino could cost somewhere in between $3.5 and $5 million.
- Rasho Nesterovic — The second year of the LLE is worth $2.06 million
- The Raptors would need to carry a minimum of 13 players on their roster next season. So the Raptors are looking at a minimum added cost of $1.9 million (rookie minimum contracts), and up to $3.3 million should they target veterans on minimum contracts.
Okay, so the Raptors cap at a minimum is somewhere between $64.4 million and $65.8 million already.
If they were to sign Delfino to a contract worth $5 million, they’d be up near the $69 million mark. If they added Rasho on top of that, they would be around $70.5 million. If the Raptors only signed Rasho, but not Delfino, they’d be in the $66 million range.
And this is without taking into account a possible lottery pick.
I was listening to a Bryan Colangelo interview over on Raptors Republic this morning and he mentioned two possible figures for the luxury tax threshold next season:
- BRI (basketball related income) falling 2.5% — luxury tax threshold in the $65 million range
- BRI falls 3.5% — luxury tax threshold in the $63 million range
These are clearly two of the figures on Colangelo’s mind right now.
How Much Can The Raptors Spend?
To repeat Colangelo’s words — The Raptors have $7.1 million in cap room beneath the luxury tax threshold — so they can still spend a fair bit of money on the team for next season.
The higher of the two figures quoted by Colangelo in the interview was $65 million. The Raptors are right on the doorstep of that figure already, before paying either Rasho or Delfino.
- Will the Raptors take a chance on the luxury tax projections?
- Will they risk paying the luxury tax for this team in 2010/11?
If not, it doesn’t look like the Raptors can sign any more multi-year contracts.
So either Colangelo takes a big risk with the luxury tax, or he limits himself to one-year contract offers for Delfino + Rasho and/or anyone else he’s targeting.