The power rankings on this site will be made at five different points in the season – Preseason, First Quarter, Halfway, Third Quarter, prior to the Playoffs.

Teams under these Power Rankings are being judged when at full capacity (healthy) + when in form. Teams do not slide down the standings due to poor recent form (say losing five straight despite being a 60 win team) or because their star player is out injured (Yao Ming). The idea behind that is to take a longer view on the capabilities of the roster in terms of current ability. Also, it’s the reason why they are only quarterly reports (smaller variance).

A belated power rankings after the first quarter point of the 2009/10 season

Eastern Conference

#1 Boston Celtics

They’re the frontrunner until someone proves they can knock off a healthy Celtics team.

#2 Orlando Magic

The Magic have played well but I’m disappointed in their lack of use of Vince Carter as a playmaker and I’m not sure they’re getting the most out of their frontcourt options.

Anyway, the Magic are in good shape to make a run at the title.

#3 Cleveland Cavaliers

Preseason comment:

Different? Yes. Better? Ehh … the jury is still out on that one.

The Cavaliers look no better than last year’s side. They look a step behind both the Celtics and Magic. They still are, however, a legitimate threat for the title.

#4 Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks surprise me for the second straight year in a row.

Congratulations to Josh Smith. The light has finally come on for that young man. Smith has been the main reason for Atlanta’s improvement this season.

The Hawks are one step away from becoming a legitimate contender. They’re capable of beating anyone.

#5 Washington Wizards

Gilbert Arenas has not looked good. Can he return to his form of three years ago? Or is this the Arenas we should get used to seeing?

That answer will decide whether the Wizards are a playoff lock or a borderline playoff side. Until we figure that out, we just don’t know what this team is capable of.

I’m going to give the Wizards some more time to come good before dropping them down on these power rankings.

#6 Chicago Bulls

The Bulls ave suffered from injuries (Rose, Ty Thomas) and poor form (Salmons, Hinrich) in the first quarter of the season.

If Salmons and Hinrich fail to regain their touch offensively the Bulls are a sub .500 team.

#7 Detroit Pistons

Tayshaun Prince (3 games played) and Rip Hamilton (3 games played) have been missing in action … once they both get back and settled we’ll have a better idea of what the Pistons have to offer.

I like what I’ve seen from Coach Kuester and Ben Wallace. The Pistons are looking very good for another playoff berth.

#8 Philadelphia 76ers

Okay, so the Sixers went 5 and 6 over their first 11 games … and then lost 12 in a row? Huh? What is going with the Sixers?

I’m shocked at their under-performing defense.

• Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young continue to fail to reproduce their previous defensive impact when paired out on the wing versus the two forward positions.
• Sam Dalembert’s lack of minutes have hurt the Sixers hugely (defensively + overall).
• Plus, Elton Brand has struggled defensively at the four.
• But even at that … one would expect the Sixers to be somewhere in the middle of the pack defensively.

That said, with Iverson now on board, the Sixers look primed for a strong playoff push. Phily should play above .500 for the rest of the season. Those 12 games will be hard to make up though.

#9 Miami Heat

A lot of unanswered questions for the Heat …

• Can Jermaine O’Neal maintain his level of performance? Also, can he stay healthy?
• Michael Beasley has shown very good improvement defensively but there’s still a lot of areas in need of development. Where does his game go over the final three quarters of the year?
• How well will Miami’s defense perform? They were excellent over the first two weeks of the season and looked capable of being a top 10 defensive squad but they’ve been slightly below average since then. Which is the true picture?

For now … I’m still leaning towards the slightly pessimistic side of things for the Heat but I do think they’re capable of finishing slightly above .500 and that they’re looking very good for a return to the playoffs.

#10 Charlotte Bobcats

Excellent trade to pickup Stephen Jackson. That move allows the Bobcats to create a small bit of separation from the trailing pack.

#11 Milwaukee Bucks

Here’s what I wrote in preseason:

Too early to know what to make of the Bucks. They have a good center, a solid two guard, and a weird but compelling mix of decent-to-solid role players … plus the defensive wizardry of Head Coach Scott Skiles.

Oh and that Brandon Jennings kid. I don’t have a clue how he’s going to do this season.

So, now we know Jennings is a serious talent. His rookie miscues + streaky/inefficient offensive play derides a lot of his value though.

#12 Toronto Raptors

It’s amazing … as disappointing as the Raptors have been … and with as much doom + gloom as there is around the club right now … Toronto are in 9th place in the East. Only one spot out of the playoffs.

However, there doesn’t appear to be a hope in hell that the Raptors make the postseason. Not with the lack of defensive effort on display. They’ll be below .500, likely in the 34-39 win range. Things could get worse in a hurry if Calderon is out for an extended period.

#13 Indiana Pacers

I’ve been looking over some of the previous power rankings over the last few weeks and I feel like I haven’t been giving the Pacers enough credit for the talent on their roster.

I like to leave teams where I feel they rank when reasonably healthy rather than dropping them way down the rankings due to an injury to a key player. Take a longer view on team’s roster and ability of that roster.

I’m not sure that I’ve been giving the Pacers the same benefit … part of the reason for my uneasiness with the situation is my skepticism of Mike Dunleavy returning to his performance level of three years ago. A career year.

Anyway, worth mentioning, I may not be treating the Pacers fairly here.

#14 New York Knicks

I’m surprised to see the Knicks perform so poorly after their performance last season. I guess the D’Antoni effect last year was only temporary.

New York have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league.

#15 New Jersey Nets

The Nets started off the season by losing 18 straight games and firing their long time Head Coach Lawrence Frank. This is not an accurate description of NJ’s talent level.

Western Conference

#1 Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are the team to beat until proven otherwise.

#2 San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are the only other established (Portland are a question mark for now) contender in the Western Conference.

That said, as expected, well, worse than expected really, the Spurs clearly look a tier below the Lakers talent wise.

#3 Houston Rockets

Same auld for the Rockets — Injuries have decimated their team, leaving a squad that should play .430-.530 basketball. The team looks like the 9th-11th best roster in the West.

* I’m not expecting anything out of McGrady, but if he were able to come back at an early enough date, and play at a high level, the Rockets could make a strong playoff push.

#4 Portland Trailblazers

The injury to Greg Oden has ended the Blazers Championship hopes. The loss of Oden would have left the Blazers as a 50 win squad but further long term injuries to Travis Outlaw + Nicolas Batum have made life even more difficult for the young Blazers.

#5 Dallas Mavericks

In preseason, I said that I wasn’t giving the Mavericks enough credit and I’m still not today. I haven’t got a good feel for what this squad is capable of. I’m waiting to see how a healthy Josh Howard adds to the team.

Next couple of weeks could tell us a lot about the Mavericks. At the moment they look capable of being the third best team in the Western Conference.

#6 Utah Jazz

Second tier side … not capable of contending for a title.

Same problems for the fourth year in a row.

#7 Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have been disappointing.

• Denver’s defense has dropped off. They were the second best defensive team in the West last year but only a mediocre defensive squad so far this season. I would expect this to improve as the year goes on though.
• Carmelo Anthony hasn’t continued to his development. He needs to improve his non-scoring contributions. Too much focus on putting the ball in the basket.
• JR Smith hasn’t played as well as he did last season … it looks like a pipe dream to expect him to become a difference maker for the side this season.

#8 Phoenix Suns

Preseason quote:

The Suns are still a good team. Not an elite team. Not a very good team. Not a threat in the playoffs. But good.

#9 Oklahoma City Thunder

I’m surprised at how well the Thunder are doing defensively. Fourth in defensive efficiency, fifth in forcing turnovers, and seventh in opposing eFG%.

Entering the season, I liked what the Thunder’s backcourt was going to bring defensively but I greatly disliked the lack of defensive contributions made by Durant, Green and Krstic. In other words, their starting frontcourt. Overall, I thought they’d be a respectable defensive outfit (somewhere in the middle of the pack).

I’m amazed at how far they’ve come defensively. This improvement should push the Thunder above the .500 threshold. A 44-48 win team with potential for more.

#10 Los Angeles Clippers

Still waiting to see how Blake Griffin adds to their team.

#11 New Orleans Hornets

What has happened to the Hornets defensively? Even last season, when they were relying on Hilton Armstrong as their starting center, the Hornets managed to play above average defensively? Where has the defensive effort gone?

Byron Scott was a big part of the Hornets defensive quality but New Orleans was struggling defensively before he was fired.

Without a sudden resurgence of their past play defensively … the Hornets simply aren’t an above average side.

A .500 team at best … and possibly worse.

#12 Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are all over the place … mismatched lineups and combinations everywhere.

#13 Memphis Grizzlies

Preseason comment:

The Grizzlies aren’t a basketball team, they’re a circus.

1. Allen Iverson has gone.
2. Marc Gasol has shown tremendous improvement.
3. It looks like Rudy Gay is beginning to take step forwards too.

The Grizzlies are screwing up their rebuilding process still, but, they’re no longer a circus. They’re a poor-to-decent basketball team.

#14 Sacramento Kings

I haven’t been watching the Kings enough. I have no idea how they’re playing so well. It doesn’t make sense to me at this point.

Until, I manage to catch a couple more games, I’m going to continue with the expectation that Sacramento falls hard over the remainder of the year.

#15 Minnesota Timberwolves

Their Head Coach is killing their team. Their best players simply aren’t geared towards the Triangle offense. Dump the offense and the Wolves will start performing better.

It’s good to see Kevin Love back on the court. It’s a lot of fun to watch this guy rebound the basketball.

Notes

Western Conference Landscape

• Two elite team – Lakers, Spurs
  
• Two teams who may make the jump to elite — Rockets and Blazers
  
• Three very good teams all capable of winning 50 or more games –  Jazz, Mavs, Nuggets,
• Three good teams — Suns, Thunder, Hornets (??)
  
• One mediocre team – Clippers
• No decent teams
  
• Three poor teams — Warriors, Grizzlies and Kings
• One very poor team — Wolves
  
• Two teams decimated by injuries already — Rockets + Portland — both would be elite or near elite teams if healthy.
  

Eastern Conference Landscape

• Three elite teams – Celtics, Cavs and Magic
• One very good team — Hawks
• One good teams – Wizards
• Two solid teams – Bulls and Pistons
  
• Four mediocre teams — Sixers, Bobcats, Heat, Bucks
  
• Two decent teams — Raptors, Pacers
• Two poor teams – Nets, Knicks — the Knicks could easily move up a notch or two if Gallinari is healthy and as good as I hope he is.
• Zero very poor teams

Power Rankings Archive

• First Edition — end of previous season
• Second Edition — late summer
• Third Edition — start of regular season

2008/09 Season

• First Edition — preseason
• Second Edition — made at the quarter mark of the regular season
• Third Edition — made the midway point in the regular season
• Fourth Edition — made at the three quarter point in the regular season
• Fifth Edition — end of season rankings

Adrian Wojnarowski reports

For two seasons, the Warriors have had an odd time with Anthony Randolph. Sometimes, they’re in love with his sheer athletic ability in that 7-foot frame and considered him untouchable. As a rookie, they dangled him in deals, too. Well, it’s happening again. Several NBA teams say Golden State officials have offered Randolph in trade discussions, but as one Eastern Conference executive said: “I think all of their roster could be had.”

Says one Western official: “The Warriors are willing to do anything and everything.”

Randolph is 20 years old and blessed with terrific talent, but his staying power and maturity have frustrated Golden State officials. It appears they’re willing to cash his potential for more mature assets. After destroying the summer league in Vegas, Randolph has averaged 11.1 points in 21.8 minutes per night for the Warriors.

Even with his patriarch, Keith Smart, substituting for an ill Don Nelson, Randolph’s productivity hasn’t improved. Still, he’s so young, so gifted, it’s a move that would come with a great deal of long-term risk.

Accurate Report? Or Not?

This sounds like a nonsense rumour to me.

I don’t believe it.

Too Valuable

Anthony Randolph is an excellent prospect. One of the best prospects in the league. A player with All-League potential.

Trading Randolph for anything less than a comparable prospect or an established All-NBA caliber talent is a poor proposition for the Warriors.

Proposed Plan

This is what I’d like to see the Golden State Warriors do:

• Trade Andris Biedrins + Monta Ellis + Corey Maggette.
  • Just get them off the team. The Warriors future immediately improves once those players + their contracts are removed from the equation. Even if they only manage to get a low amount of talent back.
  • Also, trade Ronny Turiaf. That was a dumb signing that needs to be corrected. Giving a mediocre role player that type of long money when your squad is in such a chaotic state is always a bad idea. It removes options from the table and only provides small benefits.
• Fire Don Nelson and the rest of the coaching staff
  • They’ve clearly lost the team. They’re not building for the future. They’re not developing their young players in a productive manner.
• Replace the front office

Build their new roster behind a defensive orientated coaching staff and begin building around a core of Anthony Randolph + Stephen Curry + Anthony Morrow.

The Warriors will be a poor-to-very poor team for the next 12-24 months but over that time they’ll collect two more high lottery picks + will have bucket loads of cap space to spend. They could resurrect their franchise in that small of a time frame if they make sound long term decisions right now.

Detroit Free Press reports

Rip Hamilton is a proud guy, nowadays.

He sees how this young group of Pistons didn’t give in to despair when veterans like Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Ben Gordon missed substantial time because of injuries.

Hamilton sees the team’s 11-12 record and five-game winning streak as evidence that first-year coach John Kuester is the right man for the job.

“He really showed he can coach with the guys out on the floor,” Hamilton said Monday at the Pistons’ practice facility. “That says a whole lot, and you give a whole lot of credit to Q. Seeing the guys he had out there, they still played hard and got some wins.”

Hamilton has a point. Kuester has pushed the right buttons recently — moving Charlie Villanueva to the bench and starting Jason Maxiell and Chucky Atkins.

But most important, he has created an atmosphere in which the team is confident it can win any game no matter the opponent.

Excellent start to the season from the Pistons considering their injury problems. Coach Kuester is the main reason why. Early candidate for Coach of the Year.

• Playing Ben Wallace 30 minutes a game after he was brought in to round out a big man rotation with the idea of him being a bit part player in the squad. Big Ben has been the Pistons’ identity. He has been their defensive anchor, the top rebounder, a force in the middle, unselfish, gritty, hard working. His effort + mentality has been contagious.
• Choosing to play only one defensively deficient big man in his rotation — Charlie Villanueva — while sitting Chris Wilcox over on the bench. A four man big man rotation of Big Ben, Maxiell, Villanueva and Kwame is far more effective (allows Detroit to compete on the interior, not get over-run).
• Continued efforts to keep Charlie Villanueva on the bench and in a 7th man role where he is most effective
• Starting Jonas Jerebko … no flash to his game whatsoever. Fairly limited offensively, at least when he’s playing small forward. Just solid defense, solid rebounding. Glue player.
• Has kept the squad’s confidence level high despite losing Rip Hamilton + Tayshaun Prince. Two main cogs to the team, arguably the expected two best players on the team heading into the season.
• The Chucky Atkins decision
• Rodney Stuckey’s continued development as an all-round player and leader.
• Chiefly, due to Kuester’s lineup + rotation decisions, the Pistons rank second in the league in rebounding differential (percentage wise) and have only been out-rebounded six times on the season. The Ben Wallace decision, the big man rotation, Jerebko, Stuckey’s improvement on the glass. The mentality he’s filled the squad with to be aggressive night in night out. To get after things.

As discussed earlier in the season, the Pistons and Kuester, can improve again if they withdraw Will Bynum from the rotation in favour of a three man backcourt of Rodney Stuckey, Rip Hamilton and Ben Gordon. Then have a Tayshaun Prince + Jonas Jerebko/Austin Daye SF rotation. And continue their big man rotation.

The Pistons are close to being a lock for the playoffs as is but that move would solidify the situation.

Coach Kuester

John Kuester has been fantastic.Very happy to see him succeed.

He was one of those coaching prospects that you come across just have a very good feeling about. He reminded me of Rick Carlisle.

• An established + excellent assistant coach who was well-rounded in his background (different jobs, defensive ideals/philosophies, part of winning teams) plus gifted in areas (both offense).
• Clearly, proven, or at least as much as possible as an assistant coach, on the technical side of coaching.
• Someone who was well respected throughout the locker room and the ear of his players.

An opportunity that was a long time coming for such a talented assistant coach.

RealGM reports

The Miami Heat announced Monday that they have requested waivers on forward Shavlik Randolph.

“Shavlik was the ultimate professional,” said Heat President Pat Riley. “He always brought an absolute effort, dedication and discipline to the court each and every day. We wish him nothing but the best.”

Randolph, a 6′10″, 236-pound forward, appeared in two games this season totaling two points, seven rebounds and one block in 23 minutes of action.

Carlos Arroyo

Well, I guess that means they won’t be waiving Carlos Arroyo. That always seemed like a suspect report … who was that from again? Was it Ira Winderman?

Shavlik Randolph

As for Randolph, he had a decent little run with the Sixers a few years ago during his rookie season but I haven’t seen anything from him since (fifth year veteran now). Not convinced that he’s good enough to be in the NBA. It’s disappointing because it looked like he was a very good rebounder in the making.

Anyway, I expect we’ll see him get a few training camp invites in the future. I doubt we’ll see him back in the NBA this season.

RealGM reports

New York Knicks President of Basketball Operations Donnie Walsh announced today that free agent forward Jonathan Bender has been signed to a contract. Per team policy, terms of the deal were not disclosed.

“Jonathan has worked extremely hard in preparing himself for a return to the NBA,” said Walsh. “I know him to be a young man of the highest character from my relationship with him that dates back 10 years to his rookie year and I think he will be a fine addition to our team both on and off the court.”

The Picayune, MS-native was selected out of high school by the Toronto Raptors with the fifth overall selection in the 1999 NBA Draft and was acquired by the Pacers on Aug. 1, 1999 in exchange for Antonio Davis.

Best wishes to Jonathon Bender on his attempted comeback to the NBA.

It’s a shame that injuries ruined his chance of fulfilling that vast potential of his.

Link: ESPN has a very good article on Bender’s attempted comeback last year. Here’s a link to that.

Check out Rodney Stuckey’s last five games scoring wise:

• Milwaukee — 7-11 from the field + 5-6 from the line for 19 points
• Washington — 9-18 from the field + 7-9 from the line for 25 points
• @ Philadelphia — 10-19 from the field + 7-7 from the line for 27 points
• Denver — 7-14 from the field + 11-15 from the line for 25 points
• Golden State — 10-18 from the field + 9-10 from the line for 29 points

Overall, Rodney Stuckey is averaging 25ppg while shooting 53.8% from the field on 16 attempts a night plus 83% from the foul line while taking 9.4 attempts per game. On top of that excellent scoring production, Stuckey is adding 5.8 assists + 3.4 rebounds + 1.2 steals per game. Excellent run here from Stuckey.

This all seemed to start when the Pistons changed their starting lineup:

• Point Guard – Rodney Stuckey
• Shooting Guard – Chucky Atkins
• Small Forward – Jonas Jerebko
• Power Forward – Jason Maxiell
• Center – Ben Wallace

The need for Stuckey to concentrate more on his scoring in this lineup is clear for all to see … but how is he suddenly being so efficient with less help on the court? Strange.

Anyway, it’s excellent to see. Stuckey has always had the talent to be an efficient scorer with his ability as a penetrator + athleticism going to the rim. So, hopefully this is a sign of things to come from Stuckey.

Notes

Stuckey was scoring about 17.5ppg on a TS% of around 48% prior to this recent run. His true shooting percentage over the past five games has been 60%. The TS% isn’t going to remain that high, but it would be great if Stuckey could hang around at 55% or so … which I think he has the talent to do.

Also, Rip Hamilton came back the other night and replaced Atkins in the starting lineup. It’s a positive sign to see Stuckey have such an aggressive and efficient scoring night with one of Detroit’s other main scorers back in the lineup. Ben Gordon has been out injured since the Washington game but is expected back soon. Will Bynum has also been out injured for the last two games.

Anyway, it’s great to see Stuckey finally string a few prolific + efficient scoring games together. First time all season … and it’s really something that he should be doing more often.

Okay, I’ve finished the list of teams who are presently beneath the cap threshold for next season and who will have substantial cap space. Here’s the list of teams + links to their respective situations:

Max Contract Players

• New York – $20.2-to-$23.4 million in cap space – link
• New Jersey – $20.35-to-$25.5 million in cap space – link
• Miami – $18.4-to-$21.9 million in cap space – link
• Chicago – $9.2-to-$17.9 million in cap space – link

The Rest Of The Group

• Minnesota – $7-to-$14 million in cap space – link
• Oklahoma – $9.2-to-$12.7 million in cap space – link
• Houston Rockets — $6-to-$12.7 million in cap space – link
• LA Clippers – $6-to-$11 million in cap space – link
• Sacramento – $6-to-$10 million in cap space – link
• Atlanta Hawks — no substantial cap space (below MLE) – link

Atlanta Hawks Salaries

Contracts above $5 million

• Josh Smith – $11.6 million
• Jamal Crawford – $10.8 million
• Marvin Williams – $6.71 million
• Mike Bibby – $5.56 million
• Al Horford – $5.44 million

Marvin Williams has four years on his contract. Josh Smith has three years left on his deal. Mike Bibby has two years. Al Horford (big extension on the horizon) and Jamal Crawford are both expiring contracts.

These five players total $40.11 million.

Rest Of Team’s Salaries

• Zaza Pachulia – $4.25 million
• Jeff Teague – $1.48 million

Zaza Pachulia and Jeff Teague (rookie contract) both have three years remaining on their contracts.

Those contracts amount to $5.73 million and take the Hawks total up to $45.84 million.

Other Costs

• Draft Picks — The Hawks will have a pick somewhere in the 20s so that will require a cap hold of $850k to $1.1 million.
• Player Option — Mo Evans has a player option worth $2.5 million. It’s hard to tell on whether he plans to stick with that contract or not.
• Open Roster Spots — The Hawks will have an open roster spot charge of between $1.5-to-$1.9 million.

Okay, so the Hawks additional costs range from $2.75 to $5.1 mainly depending on whether Mo Evans opts out of his contract or not.

That takes the Hawks total payroll up to $48.59 to $50.94.

Edit: The Hawks still hold the rights to Josh Childress. His cap hold is $10.89 million (300% of $3.63 million, his final year’s pay). That cap hold takes the Hawks well over next year’s salary cap ($59.5 million to $61.8 million). If the Hawks rescind their rights to Childress then they’ll be back to the above figures. I don’t want the Hawks to re-sign Childress so I’m going to ignore the cap hold for the rest of the post (rather than changing the post) but be aware that it exists. More on Childress + the cap hold in the comments section.

The Cap

The league sent out a memo at the beginning of free agency this year citing these numbers as possible cap figures for 2010

The NBA’s ballyhooed free-agent summer of 2010 might have quietly taken another hit late Tuesday night.

In a memo announcing next season’s salary cap and luxury-tax threshold, sent out shortly before the league’s annual July moratorium on signings and trades was lifted at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, NBA teams also received tentative projections from the league warning that the cap is estimated to drop to somewhere between $50.4 million and $53.6 million for the 2010-11 season.

2010 Cap Space

So, the Hawks do not have substantial cap space. A maximum of $5 million which is less than the MLE … so they’ll use their exceptions in free agency next summer.

Hawks Free Agency Options

#1 — How nice would it be if …

• Atlanta had their expiring contracts of Speedy Claxton and Acie Law instead of that $10.8 million in Jamal Crawford. That alone would have given the Hawks $11-to-$17 million in cap space.
• Atlanta hadn’t re-upped the aging Mike Bibby to that $5.55 million deal. Now they’re up to $16-$22 million in cap flexibility.
• Both were short term moves that provide little end result. The cost of those moves is greater than the benefits.

#2 — Joe Johnson + Cap Space

This whole talk of free agency, and possible cap space, is a non-issue if Joe Johnson decides to stay with the Atlanta Hawks. His cap hold would take up whatever cap space the Hawks would have had anyway … so it’s only an issue if JJ left Atlanta.

If Joe Johnson does leave Atlanta … the Hawks have no way of replacing him through free agency. They have too much money tied up.

#3 — Crawford expires a year later

That money will be heading right to Al Horford and his new contract extension.

Atlanta’s best opportunity to add a difference maker to their team will be when shopping Jamal Crawford’s expiring contract during the 2010 summer + 2010/11 season.

If they fail to acquire that difference maker at that point, then the Hawks will be facing an uncertain and difficult task of turning a very good team into a legitimate contender. At that stage, player development will be a better option than new acquisitions for taking that next step.

#4 — Joe Johnson re-signs

If Joe Johnson sticks with the Hawks and signs a new contract … he’s likely looking at a maximum deal considering the amount of interest he’s likely to garner once Wade/James/Bosh decide their own futures.

So that will be another $16 million to the Hawks payroll taking them up to $64.6 to $67 million in salaries for 9/10 players. Atlanta will be right around, if not above, the luxury tax threshold at that stage.

Which likely means the Hawks spending on their remaining roster spots will be limited … which in turn means that the Hawks will likely struggle to upgrade their remaining open roster spots + will fail to upgrade their talent base in terms of player acquisitions (unless they hit a home run with their late first round pick). Which again has Atlanta left relying on internal development for continued progress.

Houston Rockets Salaries

Contracts above $5 million

• Yao Ming – $17.69 million
• Shane Battier – $7.43 million
• Trevor Ariza – $6.32 million

Yao Ming and Shane Battier will both be entering the final year of their respective contracts. Ariza is on the books for four more seasons.

These three players total $31.44 million.

Rest Of Team’s Salaries

• David Andersen – $2.5 million
• Aaron Brooks – $2.02 million
• Chase Budinger – $780k
• Jermaine Taylor – $780k

David Andersen and Aaron Brooks will be entering the final season of their deals. Budinger and Taylor possibly have three more years (non-guaranteed + team option on final two seasons).

Those contracts amount to $6.08 million and take the Rockets total up to $37.52 million.

Other Costs

• Draft Picks — The Rockets will have a late lottery pick to mid first round pick. Let’s assume late lottery (#12-#14). That comes with a cap hold of $1.47 to $1.63 million.
• Team Option — Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes both have team options on their contracts for the 2010/11 season. Their contracts are worth $3 million and $2.33 million respectively.
• Non-Guaranteed Contracts — Joey Dorsey has a non-guaranteed contract worth $950k.
• Open Roster Spots — The Rockets will have a minimum roster charge of $475k and a maximum of $1.9 million should they choose to part ways with Hayes + Landry + Dorsey.

Okay, so that gives the Rockets between $3.37 to $6.92 million in additional salaries. Thus, two different projections:

1. Minimum Team Salary — decline team options to Hayes + Landry + waive Dorsey — $40.89 to $40.15 million
2. Keep Talent — $44.29 to $44.44 million

The Cap

The league sent out a memo at the beginning of free agency this year citing these numbers as possible cap figures for 2010

The NBA’s ballyhooed free-agent summer of 2010 might have quietly taken another hit late Tuesday night.

In a memo announcing next season’s salary cap and luxury-tax threshold, sent out shortly before the league’s annual July moratorium on signings and trades was lifted at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, NBA teams also received tentative projections from the league warning that the cap is estimated to drop to somewhere between $50.4 million and $53.6 million for the 2010-11 season.

2010 Cap Space

So, the Rockets have … in cap space

1. Minimum salary outlook — $10.25 to $12.7 million in cap space
2. Keep talent — $6-to-$9.3 million in cap space

Rockets Free Agency Options

There’s two main streams of thought here for the Rockets

#1 — Maximize their cap space and enter free agency looking to acquire another elite talent to replace Tracy McGrady.

#2 — Keep their talent, consequently limit their cap space, then look to retain their key free agents + spend their MLE.

Key Free Agents

• Luis Scola — Will command at least the MLE in the open market. Talent wise he’s worth around $10 million per annum but due to his age + low scoring ways he’s unlikely to garner that type of attention. A contract in the $7-8 million range looks possible.
• Kyle Lowry — A contract worth around $3 million would be good business. A contract up around the MLE would be bad business.
• Tracy McGrady — Too early to say whether he should be in the Rockets plans. Depends on what he’s capable of and that will decide how much value he has in free agency.

If the Rockets were to retain Scola + Lowry for $11-12 million that would take the Rockets payroll to $55-56 million. However, at that stage, given their trade assets + lack of cap flexibility + lack of high draft picks it’s incredibly difficult to see where Houston finds another elite talent to put alongside Yao Ming.

Overall

Maximizing Houston’s cap flexibility for this summer is a painful episode that will cost them serious talent (Scola, Lowry, Landry, Hayes + maybe Battier) but it looks like their best bet over the medium-to-long term.

Acquiring an elite talent this summer and replacing those key role players is an easier proposition than keeping those key role players and looking to acquire an elite talent down the road.

Houston has hard decisions + uncertain times ahead of them.

Interbasket.net reports

Former NBA player Gerald Green has signed with Lokomotiv Kuban, a club in Russia.The high-flying 6-8 forward, who has played for the Boston Celtics, Minnesota, Houston and Dallas, has been without a basketball team since the start of the NBA season.

Green, who was selected 18th overall in the 2005 NBA draft, is talented, gifted, can jump out of the gym, and just 23 years old, but he bounced around the NBA because of his maturity and work ethic.

Just in case anyone was wondering what has happened to Green’s career since he left the Mavericks last season …