Teams under these Power Rankings are being judged when at full capacity (healthy), and judged on where they stand within the league when at full capacity rather than through their current form. So teams that are losing because of injuries will not suffer, and teams who are top squads but lose 7 of 9 will not be downgraded because of it.
Eastern Conference
#1 Boston Celtics
The Celtics are the class of the East and the defending Champions …. not only are they the best team in the East but they are also well ahead of all competitors.
#2 Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland are an incredibly irritating basketball team. They’re just as likely to win or lose to the Charlotte Bobcats as they are to the Boston Celtics and it’s because their squad has serious construction flaws, especially on the offensive end of the floor.
That said they are an extremely tough team beat who are capable of playing excellent defense, have excellent rebounders, and are passable offensively while being led by the mercurial LeBron James which gives them a chance against every single team in the league … which is why they’re a terrifying matchup in the playoffs.
#3 Philadelphia 76ers
The four teams after the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference are in close proximity to one another, and could be switched into many different orders. With that in mind, my choice for third place in the East is the unproven but potent Sixers.
I’ve been pondering where to place the Sixers ever since Elton Brand landed in Phily. Cleveland were my second ranked Eastern team for some time, but considering how closely the Sixers matched them last year I felt Elton Brand pushed them beyond the Cavs so I moved Phily second, and I still feel that way. No, it wasn’t the Mo Williams acquisition which pushed the Cavs back to second …. it was the incomplete logic. Simply put I reckon the Cavs have a better chance at knocking off all the other teams around them including Boston, that’s why they got bumped back to 2nd.
The Sixers are the team on this list that has the most issues to work through during the regular season so there will be up and downs, the overall growth will be key. They should be a very good basketball team.
#4 Orlando Magic
I’m of the opinion that the Orlando Magic underperformed in the playoffs last year. I thought the spotlight got to them and that their decision making as individuals (Nelson, Dooling, Arroyo, Hedo, Dwight) and as a collective fell off substantially in the second round of the playoffs. I believe the experience gained last year will be beneficial to the team and that this flaw will be minimized in the future.
I like what Orlando did in the summer adding Courtney Lee, Anthony Johnson, Mickael Pietrus and also the return of Tony Battie. I also like the club moving their erratic backup point guards. This is a stronger and deeper squad than before – although further reinforcements look necessary (still lots of concerns on the bench).
#5 Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons will have the second best regular season record in the East.
I feel very confident about that but I’m less confident over their credentials as a title winning side. I don’t consider the Pistons capable of winning four straight series in the playoffs, I think they need to play at their highest possible level to beat any of the four teams above (and the Western team) to win a series and I don’t think the squad is capable of playing at that level for a full month under playoff pressures. I’m taking a “prove it to me” attitude regarding Detroit’s hopes of winning a title this season.
The keys to the Pistons righting their ship and putting up a challenge for a title lie in the development of their youth and the diversity of their offense.
#6 Toronto Raptors
This is where the East takes a sizable dip.
The gap between Toronto and the above five teams is substantial and it will likely cost the Raps in the first round of the playoffs. Toronto have the weakest collection of perimeter players of any playoff squad in the league, and they lack depth. The chances of them overcoming this are minimal.
#7 Washington Wizards
We have another dip again.
The Washington Wizards simply aren’t a good enough defensive team to win three series against the team’s ahead of them in this ranking. What they can do is act the role of playoff spoiler …. because they have the firepower to scare the daylights out of anyone and if they get hot they can knock out anyone.
If Gilbert Arenas ends up being out for a longer period of time the level of certainty of the Wizards playoff spot will decline considerably, as several chasing teams in the East will be within shooting distance. As long as Gilbert makes a timely recovery, and the usual stuff about reasonable team health all round, the Wizards look a safe bet for a playoff spot.
#8 Miami Heat
The final playoff spot could be won by any 1 of the next 6 teams, including this Miami Heat. It’s wide open and it’s anyone’s game. Just because someone is lower doesn’t mean their chances are that far apart. It’s close, very close.
I chose Miami as my eight seed because I think they’ve the best top trio of players in Wade, Marion and Beasley of the trailing pack and because they’re the only team in with a legitimate MVP candidate in their squad.
The biggest questions with Miami will be their interior play, and their overall depth as their bench looks weak. The more time that passes the more concerned I’ve become with their supporting cast. I was hoping Pat Riley would do a better job of bringing in quality help but that didn’t happen.
#9 Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta is one of those teams that could be just about anything (say a 30 win team to a 50 win team).
Their playoff hopes ride on the development of their key young players – Al Horford, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith – and to a lesser extent their young bench players. Until we see this team in action we really don’t have a clue how serious a threat they are.
If the improvement is minimal and they’re comparable to last year’s Hawks team, I think they miss out on the big dance. Huge concerns on both ends of the floor …. Defensively they had only two defenders better than average …. Offensively they lacked quality and reliability in their scoring options, also lacked diversity in their scoring. Another big issue for this team is the coaching of Mike Woodson which handicaps the squad severely (I wish Mike D’Antoni was in Atlanta). There’s also the question of how capable their bench is.
Things could fall right, or very poorly for this team … or most likely somewhere in the middle. Have to wait and see.
#10 Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are another one of these teams who’s season could veer hugely depending on how their youth comes together.
I actually wrote this post about three weeks ago, but then forgot to publish it, since then some Bulls information has come to light and I’ve decided to move them up two slots in the rankings. I thought that Larry Hughes would retain his starting spot allowing Gordon to remain off the bench, and that Rose would split minutes with Hinrich at the point. I also thought Rose would struggle to outplay Hinrich, especially by a large margin, to drastically improve the Bulls chances. But early signs all point to (1) Rose being much further ahead than I expected (2) a Rose-Hinrich starting backcourt. This is a big plus for the Bulls, I have much love for the Hinrich-Rose tandem, and has forced me to re-think their standings. So now Chicago are 10th and I consider their chances of making the playoffs much improved.
#11 Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers are flying quietly under the radar. It’s not surprising because they have no recognizable star players …. but they do have a solid squad.
Last year the Pacers won 35 games, only two games out from making the playoffs. One roster upgrade alone dramatically changes their chances, and that’s the upgrade from Travis Diener to TJ Ford. Add in two quality wings in Dunleavy and Granger and you’ve a potent group of perimeter players. They also have quality depth on the perimeter with Jack, Rush and Daniels. Also Shawne Williams. The interior is where the major questions lie but a group of Foster, Rasho, Murphy, Hibbert will be able to do a solid job and keep the squad ticking.
This is a completely mediocre basketball team in every imaginable way … so they have a solid shot at winning the 8th seed in the East.
#12 Charlotte Hornets
The lack of quality role players, depth, and interior help for Emeka Okafor destroyed the Bobcats season last year.
In comes Sean May, DJ Augustin, Adam Morrison. It doesn’t sound like a huge amount, but when coupled with the role players already here – Raymond Felton, Matt Carroll, Nazr Mohammed – you get a solid supporting cast to surround your three main players (Richarson, Wallace, Okafor).
No role player is of more importance than Sean May, his health and contribution is imperative for the Bobcats to make a serious push for the postseason.
The next biggest problem was the coaching of Sam Vincent, which has been replaced by Larry Brown. Once again, good news which should strengthen the side.
#13 Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are the final squad in the East that I feel have playoff credentials.
The reason they’re last? Defense.
Another reason? Bench play.
How about one more reason? Lack of help for Bogut in the paint.
Scott Skiles has never coached an NBA team that was above average in offensive efficiency. Simply put, Milwaukee’s only hope of making the playoffs is that Skiles’ streak ends right now. Skiles will help improve their defense, but that improvement won’t be enough to lead the Bucks back into the playoffs (not enough good defenders on the roster for that large of a jump) …. that improvement has to come on the offensive end.
The Bucks were a disappointing outfit offensively last season as they finished 21st in the NBA in offensive efficiency. I also think they underperformed which is good news for their chances for improvement next season.
One of the big problems was Mo Williams, who is a very good change of pace scoring guard but unfortunately a rather woeful floor general. In his place steps Luke Ridnour who has a good track record as floor general and pass first point. With Mo’s scoring gone the club needs a replacement, in steps a top 10 scorer from last season in Richard Jefferson. Now we’re cooking. Add in the improvement from Andrew Bogut and the extra touches he should receive and Milwaukee have the basis of a good offense. Now it’s time to turns those thoughts and words into reality. Milwaukee will likely need to be slightly above average offensively so we’ll see if they can achieve it.
If I was looking at an offense-defense model for Milwaukee. I’d think last year’s Wizards who ranked 12th in offensive efficiency but only 24th in defensive efficiency. That’s something that Milwaukee needs to shoot for.
#14 New Jersey Nets
There is no team in the NBA who’s season could swing as far in either direction depending on their youth as the New Jersey Nets can.
This team is next to impossible to predict. They have a solid collection of youth with competition all over their squad. Things could work out and they’d be in solid shape (mid thirties win wise) or things could become a disaster area (low 20s).
So why am I so down on the Nets?
- Lack of scoring options after Vince Carter+Devin Harris. Someone has to step up, probably two players including one interior player. The Nets will struggle to survive offensively if they have only one high quality scoring option.
- Question marks defensively outside of the point. Trenton Hassell is the only above average defender on the wings, and he’ll be tough to play because of their offensive issues. Lots of questions over their interior D with Yi, Lopez, Najera, Boone. Sean Williams is the most likely answer and he could do great work in this department but he has to piece it together on a nightly basis first.
#15 New York Knicks
How does D’Antoni alter the lineups?
Is Stephon on the team? Will Crawford and Q be the starting wings again? Can Eddy get in shape and contribute enough? What’s Gallinari’s health?Does Chris Duhon start? What about Nate? What happens to Nate/Duhon if Marbury is kept? Can Chandler start? Or will he be kept to the bench?
How much does Gallinari missing training camp and pre-season hurt these lineup decisions? The Knicks need a shooter/passer/playmaker/ballhanlder like him on the wing to balance the squad offensively. Personally I think Gallinari missing training camp is a big loss and will hurt the Knicks over the first period of the season when D’Antoni is trying to install order and teamwork into the Knicks.
I do think there’s a few lineups which could work favourably for the Knicks but there’s just as many that are disaster areas … the lack of roster movement will make it difficult to find them. The more that Gallinari, Duhon and Chandler play the more positive I’ll be about the Knicks chances, unfortunately right now that’s a huge unknown.
D’Antoni’s coaching skills and philosophies may never be tested as severely as what is coming next.
Too many questions need to be answered before I consider moving NY up. There’s some talent there though so it’s not all bad.
Western Conference
#1 Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are the frontrunner for the West … and along with Boston are the two biggest players in this season’s run for the NBA title. Everybody else is playing catch up.
Bynum is the biggest addition any contender made in the offseason but Is it enough to get the Lakers past Boston? Maybe not, but it gives them a real chance.
The Lakers will lead the West and likely the league in regular season wins, they will win 65+ games and they could threaten 70 (I thought they would win 70 this coming season the day after Pau arrived, but I’ve since wavered during the summer).
#2 Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets are the most significant threat to the Lakers in the West.
They are the best rebounding team in the league. They are one of the top two defensive teams in the league. They have two premier stoppers to throw at Kobe Bryant and generally made his life hell in the past with only one of them. Everything that Boston did that bothered LA and Bryant … Houston do as well. They have three go-to scorers who are top talents in the NBA. They have the role players. They have depth. They have coaching. They have shooting. This team is ready and potentially brilliant.
After Boston and LA, the Rockets have the next best chance of winning the NBA title. Time will tell but perhaps the only reason they’re behind the first two is because to date they’re unproven.
Health is everything for this club and it’s ruined their chances in recent seasons.
#3 Portland Trailblazers
This is where the West takes a dip in terms of well-rounded top tier teams, a fairly big dip. Suddenly it becomes a bar brawl where everyone has major vulnerabilities and is in need, sometimes dire need, of a good playoff draw to make it out of the West ….. all but one team and that’s why Portland are third.
Portland is the only team in the West after the above two that can matchup with anyone in the West at a solid or better level. This team will not rank third in regular season wins, they’ll be lower, likely much lower, but this team is going to be one of the toughest outs in the entire playoffs.
Their two seven footers in Oden and Aldridge, plus good depth up front, and that’s going to ensure this team does not get bullied in the paint. They’ll be a very good rebounding team. They’ll have an excellent interior defense. They’ll have two low post scoring options.
Then comes the beauty of Brandon Roy, the man with the abilities of a point guard effectively giving Portland two creators offensively and two players capable of initiating the action. Portland’s execution and decision making last year was very impressive and it was mainly because of this (Roy plus a point guard) wrinkle … this is a big reason why they play with such composure and why the playoffs won’t adversely affect them.
Add in the depth and talents, the shooters, the defense. This is a very good team.
#4 New Orleans Hornets
This is where I see my second dip in the West albeit a small one. The degree of separation isn’t much, and it exists only because I think New Orleans will have a tough time beating a couple of teams around them.
I’m down on the Hornets for two major reasons:
(1) Lack of offensive versatility
The Spurs effectively made New Orleans play 2-on-5 over the final four games of the playoffs last year. They are far too reliant on Chris Paul to create, and not just to create but to create on almost every single possession for every single shot. It’s too much and it’s not good. Paul is incredibly talented and freakishly efficient, and that’s the only reason why this hole doesn’t show up more severely … but make no mistake top tier opponents in the playoffs will exploit it.
The Hornets are an immense side when they have a third scorer going, and incredibly difficult to beat …. and Peja Stojakovic is the guy who needs to be that. Unfortunately as has been proven time and time again in the playoffs, a good defender who plays with discipline defensively can shut Peja down.
(2) Lack of big man depth. Tyson and West need more help. Doesn’t need to be a star, just a good role player. They don’t have that. NO are going to be forced into a lot of small ball action next season and that could hurt them.
#5 San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs will not win the title this coming season. They don’t have the supporting cast to get it done. They have too many holes on their roster and they’re too dependent on their Big Three for their own good. San Antonio cannot win four series against top class opposition, just can’t do it.
But what they can do is defeat anyone in the West other than the Lakers, and maybe the Rockets. They’re the spoiler team that knocks someone off with higher hopes (like NO or Utah).
#6 Utah Jazz
I love the Utah Jazz. They’re a joy to watch. They play beautiful basketball, especially on the offensive end. I can’t get enough of Utah. Fantastic.
But they’re not good enough to win the title. Utah need a perfect playoff draw, they need to avoid all the teams they don’t match up well with, and then hope they can outplay the guys they match up with to a mediocre level. It’s a shame. They just can’t do it. They’ve no stopper on the perimeter good enough to handle an elite scorer on the wing (Kobe), and their big men struggle against elite bigs (like Duncan) or teams with two quality bigs (like Pau/Odom/Bynum or Oden/Aldridge). They can’t get this done.
If this team was in the East they’d be the second best squad in the Conference and stand a very good chance at making the NBA Finals. Unfortunately they’re in the West, and playing against teams they don’t match up well with, and their GM hasn’t fixed their problems so they’re going to lose.
Utah’s best chance for a playoff draw is to finish top or second in the West.
#7 Phoenix Suns
Phoenix may have a better chance of winning the West than Utah, but if Utah is vulnerable to certain matchups … what does that make the Suns?
The Suns are going to lose because their three best players are defensive problems and because they cannot defend the screen and roll – let’s see that’s Spurs, Lakers, Hornets, Jazz, Blazers … that’s why Phoenix lose.
Amare Stoudemire’s growth as a defender may be the single biggest issue facing this team.
Like I said, this is the West and it’s loaded, the Suns have a shot at the title, they just need a lot of luck and a perfect draw so they can avoid the team’s they match up poorly with. Chances are they won’t get it.
#8 Dallas Mavericks
Another big dip in the West …. I think the first seven seeds are all but locked up already. I can’t see any one of those sides missing out (if reasonably healthy of course).
Only one seed is up for grabs in my mind and that’s the eight seed … and there’s three competitors gunning for it.
I picked Dallas as the winner, and I think they’re ahead by a good margin, for two reasons:
(1) Because Rick Carlisle will bleed this squad dry of every meaningful contribution he can find, and because,
(2) Dirk is sensational and will drag them upon his back over the finishing line.
#9 Denver Nuggets
Don’t believe the hype about Denver falling through the floors without Camby. It’s nowhere close to being true.
Everyone says the Nuggets have nobody to replace Camby but that’s simply not true, they have Nene who missed all of last season with injury returning from injury. Nene and Kenyon are the clubs two best interior defenders and they will keep Denver competitive in the paint. From there the wonderful talents of Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson will keep Denver within shooting distance of the playoffs.
JR Smith is a big player for this squad, hopefully he gets the minutes he deserves because he’s a season changer.
#10 Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are third on my list of playoff hopefuls gunning for the final playoff seed. They are in with a shout and have a decent chance … but I think Denver and Dallas are just that bit better.
The Clippers are the first team in the West who’s season will swing violently towards success or failure dependent on the development and readiness of their youth. Al Thornton has to become a high caliber scorer, a 18-20ppg option who can create for himself and hopefully for his teammates, and who become someone who can score better in the flow of the offense. Eric Gordon is the next best scoring option on the squad and he too must do great things offensively. If the Clippers get those two contributions …. and they’re not certainties …. their chances of making the playoffs jump hugely. If they don’t they’ll have a tough time making a legit run for the playoffs.
#11 Golden State Warriors
The West takes a huge dip now. Nobody else has playoff hopes, only the Top 10.
I don’t have a lot to say about Golden State, they’re a completely mediocre team. They need quality contributions from their young bigs (Biedrins, Randolph, Wright) and a timely return from Monta Ellis … if they can get that, then they can struggle towards/around .500 although that looks unlikely, I expect they’ll find themselves glued to that mid thirties win range or lower.
#12 Sacramento Kings
Sacramento’s season hinges on the performance of John Salmons, and their two young big men (especially Thompson).
If Salmons performs to the level he showed last season as a starter, then Sacramento has a very good three man rotation on the wings and will be competitive night in night out. Salmons scoring and penetration is incredibly important to the Kings because without it their offense has the possibility of becoming dire. What the Kings need from Thompson is rebounding and defense at the four spot to complement Miller. They get those two things (Salmons/Thompson) then they’re somewhere in the 30’s win wise and comparable to last season’s squad. I’m optimistic that they can get those contributions and that’s why they’re at #12.
If they don’t get those things they’re going to fall back fast and hard, joining the cellar dwellers OKC and Memphis.
#13 Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota have the opportunity to finish 11th in the West. They have a decent team that’s improved considerably over last season and could take some positive steps forward and possibly break the 30 win barrier, maybe even 35 wins. They have that opportunity.
I like their nucleus offensively. They’ve got a quality high post low post combination with Kevin Love and Al Jefferson. They also have three 40% three point shooters who can create their own shots off the dribble and score at a healthy rate in Miller, McCants and Foye. Offensively they’re in good shape.
So why are they 13th? Because I think their defense will hold them back. They need to make their defense more competitive, otherwise their gains elsewhere will largely go unaccounted for.
#14 Oklahoma City Thunder
Now comes the final dip, and it’s a huge one.
Is Sam Presti purposefully keeping his team in the cellar? Possibly.
At the moment this team has only one starting quality player and that’s Kevin Durant, this man, this very very young man, has the worst supporting cast in the league and the whole hopes of the franchise on his shoulders. The sadness I feel for this man …. imagine what he could do with some help out there?
#15 Memphis Grizzlies
Yeah I don’t know what to say. An unbalanced roster with huge questions on the interior.
The lack of balance on the Grizzlies team will eliminate many of the quality contributions their prospects make this year. They’re pretty much going to be running into a brick wall night after night.
The duo of Conley and Mayo is the team’s best hope of a more encouraging season than I’m expecting.