A one liner on the deal – It’s largely a lateral move with both teams taking small steps forward, the success of this trade will be defined by the next move
Trade Details Once Again
Toronto gets: Jermaine O Neal and the #41 pick
Indiana gets: TJ Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, #17 pick, Maceo Baston
What’s the virtue for Toronto?
The Raptors just got cut up in the paint by Orlando in the playoffs. They were called soft. They lacked rebounding and interior defense. Bryan Colangelo clearly felt they needed reinforcements (they did) and not just a small move (say DeSagana Diop) but a franchise changing player. Step up Jermaine O Neal.
Jermaine has been one of the best interior defenders in the league ever since he arrived in Indiana. He’s a top shot blocker, he makes excellent rotations defensively, he defends the post well, he creates turnovers and he forces the opposition into low percentage shots. Jermaine was pretty much the difference between Indiana being a top 10 defense and bottom 10 defense. He’s a great defensive anchor.
Jermaine is a good rebounder but not a dominant rebounder. He pulled down almost 7 boards in 29 minutes which is just over one every four minutes. That’s quite good but not very good. During his healthiest stretch of the season he was taking down about 8 boards per 34 minutes again below the ideal mark but still good. In years past (recent years, last four) Jermaine has pulled down a board at the four minute mark or lower which was very good. Jermaine’s rebounding rate is 12.8 (same as Rasheed, Aldridge, Gasol, Yi) which ranks 58th which is a bit surprising. So I checked back the two previous years and his rebounding rate was around 15 which ranked about 30th. Jermaine isn’t the type who gives you a great box out. He’s always played best when alongside a beefy center who takes up space and shoves people out of the way. When Indiana tried playing him and Al Harrington together they got beaten up badly on the boards. Bosh similarly is best when he’s rebounding off a big bodied center. This past season the Toronto Raptors were the fourth best defensive rebounding squad, I’d expect that number to drop with Jermaine on board although I expect Jermaine/Bosh to be a solid combination. Just not a dominant one.
Offensively Jermaine O Neal brings a back-to-the basket game to Toronto. He’s at his best when his teams run a secondary break and get into the halfcourt offense inside of 4/5 seconds allowing Jermaine a quick post up before the opposition defense sets up. He does have a jump shot but it’s more along the lines of acceptable than good shooting. This season he hit only 36% of his jumpers, the season before 37%, the season before 38%. So it’s not a good option for Jermaine to be firing up jump shots outside of the paint. This season Jermaine took about 25% of his shots outside of 15 feet which I’m comfortable with. Jermaine can fall in love in with his jumper and become non-aggressive in the paint looking for easier shots. As they used to say with Charles Oakley – you hope he makes a jump shot early because he’ll stay out there for the rest of the game instead of doing the damage that kills you. His move of choice is a turnaround jumper on either block (prefers the right block) going over either shoulder. Jermaine has a very high release point which is difficult to block. Jermaine draws a decent number of fouls drawing about 13-15% fouls per field goal attempt which is a solid number but nothing special. He’s not a particularly good passer either so he doesn’t have much value in the high post (shot below par too, not a good penetrator either). Jermaine however is a solid passer out of the low post which is the most important part of his passing considering Bosh can take the high post. Jermaine sets good hard screens both on the ball and off the ball.
In recent days I’ve heard some discontent and concerns about how well Bosh and Jermaine O Neal are going to be able to play together. I think it’s a non-issue. Jermaine is primarily a low post scorer and Bosh is primarily a mid-to-high post player. Bosh likes to catch the ball at 14-17 feet and drive or shoot. Jermaine likes to catch the ball at 6-10 feet with his back to the basket. Both are comfortable going either inside or out which should allow them to switch it around to take advantage of the matchup they want which is very good.
Another issue worth exploring is the stand still shooters of Toronto. The Raptors have many great shooters with Calderon, Parker and Kapono. Delfino if kept is a very good three point shooter too. Having a low post option will open the game up for them and vice versa for Jermaine. He’ll have more time and space in the post like he had this past season in Indiana.
What did Toronto give up?
TJ Ford who was a top 12 point guard in the league although his value and loss is limited by the presence of Jose Calderon. Rasho Nesterovic who’s a good backup center and more importantly has an $8.4mil expiring contract.
Raptors Needs and Assets Pre and Post Trade
The Raptors had several needs. Here’s a short checklist of their needs and assets pre-trade
- Better interior D
- Shot blocker
- More rebounding
- A slasher
- An All-Star perimeter player who can create for himself and his teammates off the dribble
- Better perimeter defense. Likely 2-3 roster moves needed here. With Calderon on board it’ll have to happen on the wings.
The single biggest hole was the lack of a wing who can create for himself and his teammates and that was by a huge margin. The second biggest hole was the perimeter defense.
The Raptors assets were:
- 5 expiring contracts amounting up to $20mil – Rasho, Parker, Garbajosa (since waived), Maceo, Graham.
- TJ Ford
- #17 draft pick
- MLE and LLE
Post trade their needs
- A slasher
- An All-Star perimeter player who can create for himself and his teammates off the dribble
- Better perimeter defense. Likely 2-3 roster moves needed here. With Calderon on board it’ll have to happen on the wings.
- More rebounding from the perimeter
So Jermaine has canceled out a couple of flaws in the Raptors makeup but neither of the two major flaws.
Assets
- One expiring contract worth 4.5mil and one makeweight expiring contract around a mil
- #41 draft pick
- MLE and LLE
- Bargnani
Health?
Well Jermaine has had an assortment of injuries over the past few seasons. Over the last four seasons he’s played 44, 51, 69 and 42 games which is abysmal. His most recent injury was the same as Gilbert Arenas, a meniscus tear in his knee. Like Gilbert he came back from injury too soon and suffered from some poor early play – 13ppg on 39% FG% 7rpg 33mpg while getting blocked regularly, blocked by guards, because he didn’t have enough lift in his legs. Then like Gilbert he had a setback and had to sit out. Jermaine also had a very bad bone bruise which was cited as the reason for sitting out. Like Gilbert, Jermaine tried to come back late in the season for a playoff charge and like Gilbert his play was a mixed bag and well below par. Like Gilbert he needed to rehab further this summer.
Okay so we don’t really know if he’ll get injured again but there’s another question we can ask and answer and one that is prevalent to the situation – What level of play can Jermaine O Neal play at if healthy? He’s been injured on and off for four seasons and is coming off his worst season since becoming a starter. So what does he have to offer?
I feel comfortable saying if healthy Jermaine O Neal can be remain a perennial All-Star and All-Defense player but probably not an All-Pro or MVP candidate that he once was. He has lost some athleticism, particularly lift. He had one good month of basketball in December this past season where he played 15 games. In those games he was at around 80-85% health I reckon and I think he said a similar number when asked at the time. He scored 19ppg, 8rpg, 3apg on 49% shooting from the field in 34 minutes per game. He was dominant. There was two games in particular that stood out for me during that stretch and they were Phoenix and Orlando. Two of the most exciting games of the season but more importantly home to two of the most athletic big men in the league in Dwight Howard and Amare Stoudemire. Jermaine O Neal proved in those two games that he was still able to compete against athletes and players of their caliber. During the Phoenix game he dominated on both ends of the court and kept Amare shooting jumpers, while getting 30 and 11 himself. Against Orlando he struggled personally scoring only 15 points on 33% shooting and grabbing only 6 rebounds but he was the centerpiece of an impressive win and his Pacers teammates played inside-out off of Jermaine all night long to great effect. He looked dangerous and capable. The ball just didn’t go in the hoop.
Salary Issues
Jermaine has $44mil over two seasons remaining on his contract. So basically the Raptors took on an extra year of a max contract on the risk of gaining a top big man. That works for me. The timing of the contract expiring suits me better also, I think it’s far more valuable for the Raptors to have the cap space in 2010 rather than 2009. So from a salary point of view I think it’s all good. Limited downside and big upside.
Eastern Standings
So how far does this push Toronto up in the Eastern Conference? Are they a title contender? Homecourt?
Well I don’t think it changes too much for the Raptors. They’re still far too weak on the perimeter both offensively and defensively and that will doom them. Overall I expect their defensive numbers to jump up and to enter (barely) the top 10 in defensive efficiency but I also expect their weak perimeter defense to be exposed to great effect by quality perimeter players in the Playoffs. Their lack of defense on the perimeter will cause problems against Boston (Ray, Rondo, Pierce), Cleveland (LeBron), Orlando (Hedo and Jameer), Detroit (Rip, Chauncey, Prince), Washington (Arenas, Butler). You could wonder about a few maybe playoff teams too but we’ll wait to see them later.
Basically I think Toronto are exactly where they were before the deal. A good regular season team capable of winning around 50 games but very vulnerable in the playoffs. Without further moves they’re only the fifth or sixth best team in the East. They are absolutely not a contender for a title.
What’s Next?
Right at the top I wrote a line – It’s largely a lateral move with both teams taking small steps forward, the success of this trade will be defined by the next move - So what’s the next move?
Well there’s two things that need doing – Perimeter help and Andrea Bargnani.
Let’s start with Bargnani. It’s moving day. It’s time for Bargnani to leave. He’s not going to do his trade value any favours by playing the scraps behind Bosh and Jermaine in the frontcourt. The Raptors know he’s incapable of playing small forward and that that is not a legitimate option. Bargnani still has good trade value and can be dealt for some perimeter help. Add Bargnani to the list of assets to deal. It’ll be interesting to see if Colangelo will be willing to deal Bargnani … he has to be willing and he has to make it happen.
The perimeter is very weak. It’s the weakest of any possible playoff team and by a good margin the weakest around. There’s two areas to talk about – Defense and Offense
Defense is going to be a large problem for this set of players. Calderon is a very weak player who doesn’t deny dribble penetration at all. He’s easy to beat and is beat regularly. Kapono is a weak defender and struggles against all types of wings but particular pacy wings. Delfino likewise struggles against all types of wings, particularly speed and tall wings. Anthony Parker had a splendid first season defensively but he fell off in a serious way last season and the problem was likely age. It’ll be interesting to see whether Parker can regain some of his previous powers or not, if he can it will limit the problem significantly, if he can’t the Raps are in trouble. That leaves Jamario Moon who should be the sides best defender next season and he’s only slightly above average. He’s too small (height, length, bulk) to handle small forwards. He’ll be a victim of Paul Pierce, LeBron James and Hedo Turkoglu and those three teams are the three beasts of the East. The Raptors have no wing capable of defending tall perimeter players.
Offensively there are several difficulties. I said it earlier but I’ll reiterate it again – the single biggest need for the Raptors was the addition of a wing who can create for himself (scoring) and his teammates (assists) off the dribble. Someone dynamic who can attack defenses from difficult angles and avoid the Raptors becoming predictable and easy to stifle. By the way, the second biggest need was perimeter defense, so while Jermaine fills some holes it’s neither of the two big holes. Now on the kickouts from Bosh or Jermaine the perimeter players will either get a catch and shoot or will have to reset the offense. Nobody on the team can beat their man off the dribble outside of Calderon. Calderon was a reluctant scorer when he was the second best offensive talent with huge opportunities to take over, and with the team needing him to, scoring only 11 points. That simply isn’t a big enough threat. Nobody else on the perimeter can create their own shot and nobody else on the perimeter can create a shot for a teammate. They’re all stand-still shooters who provide no midrange scoring, no penetration, don’t draw fouls, so they don’t get to the free throw line, don’t score in the paint, don’t force the defense to react to them, don’t force the defense to offer help D, dont’ force the defense to collapse …. thus making them incredibly easy and predictable to defend.
Their flaws on the perimeter will destroy any postseason hopes if not cured. It’s their number one priority. The success of the Jermaine O Neal trade will be decided by whether or not the Raps add more perimeter help.
Conclusion
Again I said in the first line – It’s largely a lateral move with both teams taking small steps forward, the success of this trade will be defined by the next move
Chad Ford: (2:12 PM ET ) He was awesome and he’ll compete with Ed Davis and a few other freshmen for that.However, there is some buzz that Wall believes he might be eligible for THIS year’s draft.