Turkoglu Chooses Toronto

Hedo Turkoglu Will Be Joining Forces With Jose Calderon And The Raptors Next Season

ESPN reports

Free agent forward Hedo Turkoglu changed his mind Friday and decided not to join the Portland Trail Blazers, opting instead to accept a five-year $53 million offer from the Toronto Raptors, sources told ESPN.com.

The Raptors had to … in order to free up the cap room

The decision left the Blazers livid and was a huge coup for the Raptors, who have promised Turkoglu all of the salary-cap space they will have from renouncing their rights to Shawn Marion, Anthony Parker and Carlos Delfino, which will likely add up to a starting salary in the $10.1 million range, with eight percent annual raises.

What happened? Why did Hedo change his mind?

A source close to the discussions said Turkoglu had given a verbal commitment to the Blazers on Thursday, then alerted the team on Friday morning that he was having second thoughts. By mid-afternoon Pacific time, the Blazers were told the deal was dead and Turkoglu would be signing with the Raptors.

Turkoglu will make about $3 million more over the life of the contract than he would have made in Portland, but a bigger reason for his change of heart, a source told ESPN.com, was his desire to play in Toronto, a more international and cosmopolitan city — one with a large Turkish population — and his familiarity with the Eastern Conference after having spent the last five seasons with the Magic.

Hedo Turkoglu

I think this is better for Hedo Turkoglu. I think the Raptors are a better fit, will offer him a larger role, and give him a better chance of continuing his fine play from the last two seasons.

Jay Triano is someone who I’m entirely comfortable with, but he does give freedom to his players and allows them to go out and play their games. This is hugely important for Hedo, because he doesn’t do as well in highly structured disciplined offenses (his time in San Antonio for example).

Toronto Raptors Cap Choices

Best Play

I thought the best play for the Toronto Raptors this season was not to spend their cap space. Instead, to keep it for next offseason when it could be put to better use.

In the interim period, as Dino Gunner suggested in a comment about the Raptors a few days ago

In fact, I hope that the Raptors can stay significantly under the cap for the very same reason; to facilitate trades to help get teams under the luxury cap in exchange for talent or draft picks. The raptors have no chance of realistically competing next year anyways.

I felt the Raptors should have been trying to make their cap flexibility work for them … by agreeing to take back bad one year contracts in order to pick up useful assets, like future draft picks or other cheap young talent.

Second Best Play

I thought their second best choice was to sign Hedo Turkoglu for reasons I’ll get into in a few short moments.

Third Play – Worst Play

Re-signing Shawn Marion, Carlos Delfino, and perhaps Anthony Parker and then considering using the MLE on top of it all.

This was a good short term (next season) decision, but very likely would have been a killer blow to the Raptors medium and long term future. I wanted Colangelo to stay far away from this, and in the end, he did, so I’m very happy with that decision.

Other Plays

There were some other decisions the Raptors could have made

• Wings — Ron Artest, Linas Kleiza, Marvin Williams, Trevor Ariza, Josh Childress
• Big Men — Lamar Odom, Anderson Varejao, David Lee, Paul Millsap, Marcin Gortat — would likely lead to a Bosh or Bargnani trade.
• Guards — Ramon Sessions, Ben Gordon — Sessions would likely lead to a Calderon trade.

Since Colangelo wants to retain Bosh, Bargnani and Calderon for the time being, the only options he would have strongly considered where the wings. So, I’m only going to concentrate on moves that I think Colangelo would make … with the idea that Colangelo will spend all available money trying to improve the team.

In relation to those options, I think Hedo was the best option.

What Does Hedo Bring To Toronto?

A playmaker on the wing

This is one of my favourite attributes in basketball. I love having wings who can dribble, pass, create for themselves and others. It opens up your offense, gives you great versatility, and makes you a lot less predictable and tougher to defend.

As I wrote on Raptors Republic a few days ago

However, Hedo does do a lot to open up the offense.

Last season the Raptors only had one player capable of beating his man off the dribble and creating for himself or others, and that was Jose Calderon. Clearly, Jose is too passive to be the only player with these abilities on the team, and would be better served as the second or third best player in this regard.

The Raptors are going nowhere without more dribble penetration, more perimeter scoring, and more creativity (too predictable currently), and wings who can actually dribble and pass the basketball.

Hedo Turkoglu gives that option to the Raptors and fixes, or at least partially fixes, this area of need. Wings who can both pass and score at a high level or a rare breed (about 10 wings scored 15+ points and handed out 5+ assists over the last two seasons), and very difficult to acquire as a result. Who knows when the next opportunity comes around to get a guy with his skill set.

And

Wings who can create his own offense and create shots for teammates — Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Brandon Roy, Kobe Bryant, Manu Ginobili, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, Andre Iguodala, Vince Carter, Hedo Turkoglu, Stephen Jackson. Tracy McGrady when he’s healthy.

Now, obviously Hedo is very low on that list, but just making the list is impressive.

Getting a wing who can create, who can dribble, who can pass and make shots for teammates … makes a team’s offense much more dynamic and more difficult to defend.

For my money, this is the single largest problem facing the Raptors — how to acquire a player with this skill set.

The largest and most difficult problem to solve for the Raptors last season was their over-reliance on Jose Calderon. The need for him to create everything offensively. The lack of anyone else on the perimeter who can get their own shot, or create a shot for someone else.

Heck, there were times when it got so bad, that you actually looked forward to Jason Kapono trying to create a shot for somebody!

Hedo’s All Round Game

Hedo Turkoglu is also a good defender. I actually rate him as a better defender at three than Shawn Marion, who’s perimeter man-to-man defense has declined considerably over the past few seasons. So, I think Hedo improves them there.

Hedo Turkoglu is also a decent rebounder. He is slightly below average but respectable on the backboards. The downgrade from Marion’s rebounding to Hedo’s rebounding, will be a major issue for the Raptors as long as Bargnani is still on the team.

Then you add his scoring ability, and his passing ability, and you have a player who consistently effects a game in a multitude of ways.

Raptors Teammates

This is an excellent setup for Hedo Turkoglu

• One of the best pick and roll/pop big men in the NBA in Chris Bosh
• One of the best pick and pop big men in Andrea Bargnani
• A very good and ultra efficient point guard in Jose Calderon. Someone who can run the offense, lighten Turkoglu’s burden, and be a secondary creative threat after Hedo like Jameer Nelson was in Orlando.
• And Colangelo normally has a lot of very good shooters around the perimeter. Their contracts are up, but Colangelo will re-load.

This is an excellent situation for Hedo Turkoglu to get the utmost out of his talent, and in that process, give as much as humanly possible to his new team.

The Money

The exact details of the contract haven’t been decided yet.

When I wrote the above comments on Raptors Republic, I was hoping the Raptors could get Hedo on a cheaper deal of around $43-45 million over five years, which would have been a very good contract for Hedo. I thought this may be possible because Orlando were no longer able to resign him, and because the market looked suspect for Hedo, but Portland’s strong interest in Turkoglu drove the price back up to where it should be, which is a five $50 million range.

The deal looks like it’s okay. It’s a fair bit money for a player his age, and as it creeps more towards $60 million I start to get somewhat uncomfortable with it. But like it’s okay, it’s fine.

Unless Hedo ages horribly bad, it’s nothing that will cause problems for the Raptors. It’s not a great deal, but it’s solid. It’s not something that will stop them from doing more important works.

The Road Forward

When you sign a player of Hedo Turkoglu’s age and over him long term money, you’re trying to win and win now. So over the next five years, and preferably in the next 2-3 years, the Raptors are trying hard to become a full fledged contender.

Is this possible? Yes, this acquisition moves them in the right direction.

The Raptors need to assemble a big four now. They have Bosh, their interior presence, and they have two good perimeter players in Calderon and Turkoglu.

The Raptors should consider Hedo and Jose, their 3rd and 4th best players out of the big four. Bosh will either need someone of comparable ability, or better than him, to be 1st or 2nd star in the big four here.

Ideally, you’d like that fourth star to be a go-to scorer, a 20-25 points per game type threat. You’d rather acquire a player like Joe Johnson who is also a very good playmaker, but a non-playmaker like a Danny Granger would more than suffice.

So, the Raptors are one big move away?

Yes, one big move, and then a couple mid-sized moves, and a bunch of small moves. All realistically achievable.

How do the Raptors address these needs?

• Trade Bargnani
• Use their draft pick next season well. It will quite possibly be another high lottery pick, or if the Raps are lucky it’ll be in the #14-#16 range as they make the playoffs as a low seed.
• Use their MLE next season to get a good big man to play alongside Chris Bosh. That should be able to get them a good enough player to round out their starting five.
• Then piece together the bench with low priced talent

If the Raptors do not trade Bargnani, is it possible to build a contender?

Emm … maybe …

If the Raptors chose to let Bargnani expire, they’d have around $8-10 million in cap space in 2010. That would unlikely be enough to net them their fourth star though.

But if the Raptors held that money over until 2011, they could get something done then. The only contracts currently on their books for that offseason is Bosh, Jose, Hedo and rookie contracts. So they should have enough available cap space to offer a max contract or close to it, and with those three stars on the books, the Raptors will be able to make a very attractive offer to somebody. So they could get it done then.

If they don’t find trade Bargnani, and net a very good talent in return, the Raptors would likely have to wait two seasons.

Can the Raptors build a legitimate contender with Bargnani on the team?

No, no.

They’d need a miracle.

Conclusion

I really like this move for the Toronto Raptors. This is a very good free agent signing.

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