Monta Ellis -- 27 shots + 8 FTs + 9 turnovers = 24 points + 8 Dimes

Marbury To Leave Celtics?

In Free Agency on July 3, 2009 at 9:13 am

The Boston Globe reports

Celtics free agent guard Stephon Marbury said to The Globe early Friday morning that he doesn’t expect to be returning to Boston after receiving a disappointing one-year contract paying $1.3 million using the veteran’s minimum.

Despite Marbury’s disappointment at the Celtics offer, he was thankful to the club for giving him a fresh start

Despite the disappointment for Marbury, he was thankful the Celtics gave him a chance after his Knicks situation ended.

“Thank you Boston for allowing the world to see me play again after all that went on in N.Y.,” said Marbury, via e-mail to The Globe. “The fans treated me with open arms and that’s all anyone can ask for.”

What will Marbury do now?

The 32-year-old said three other teams, which he would not disclose, are currently interested.

The Risk

Stephon Marbury is a high risk, high reward player. He’s high risk not because of the financial commitment, but because Boston are a contender and they’ll be relying heavily on him to fill an important role.

Last season, Stephon Marbury was one of the worst players in the league.

The question is whether that’s his status quo now? Or whether he can improve his performances after a hard summer’s training, a training camp, and a full season in a good locker room with a consistent role? And if he can improve, by how much can he improve?

There are no known answers to these questions, which makes Marbury a large risk signing for a club like Boston. Maybe Marbury would have been one of the best backup guards in the NBA next season, maybe he would have been garbage again.

Great News

I think it’s great news that Marbury is leaving Boston. I was unhappy with two facets to his return:

  • The risk over his performance level — I felt the risk was too large, and unnecessary, and I didn’t trust Doc Rivers to act accordingly should Marbury fail to impress.
  • Eddie House playing the two

Eddie House is a liability as a two guard. He hurts Boston defensively and on the backboards. The small boost they get offensively (more efficiency, lower scoring per minute) does not offset the beatings they’re taking on the other end of the floor. Eddie House is also easier to shut down when playing at the two guard spot, which makes his defensive liabilities a much larger problem for Boston.

The small ball backcourt was further problematic for Boston because of Marbury’s defense, and because Boston regularly had to play an undersized small forward (Ray Allen) too. Marbury would have been a holdover so that situation remains, and there’s a good chance Boston’s backup wing is a smaller player next season again (odds of getting a big small forward look meager right now).

In contrast, Eddie House was a very good player at the backup point guard.

Other Backup Point Guard Options

Boston do not want to play Eddie House as their backup point guard next season. They feel he’s best off the ball, and that their second unit has much better ball + player movement when there’s a true point guard at the helm. If they cannot sign Stephon Marbury, the Celtics will want a new backup point guard.

So, who can the Celtics turn to now for their backup point guard?

  • Anthony Carter
  • Ronnie Price
  • CJ Watson
  • Brevin Knight
  • Ty Lue

It’s known that Danny Ainge has already contact Ty Lue and registered his interest in him. You have to wonder how much Lue’s friendship with Garnett is playing a role here.

I think Anthony Carter is the only reasonable name there. With Ty Lawson on his way to Denver, Carter is emminently available and perhaps could be had for the veterans minimum. Carter was likely looking for a pay rise from Denver this summer, but lack of other opportunities may force his hand. Then again, he’s the best backup point guard on the market, and as such he may be able to command the LLE from someone.

If one of these point guards is siged, that will increase the likelihood that Gabe Pruitt is waived by the Celtics this summer. He has a non-guaranteed contract. Summer league, Orlando SL, starts in a few days (6th or 7th of July), and how Gabe plays there will go a long way to determining Boston’s next step.

Signing Marbury

Who should sign Marbury?

  • A playoff hopeful who are not a contender. Someone who can comfortably take a larger risk.
  • A desperate team or a desperate contender

How much will Marbury cost?

  • I’m thinking he’ll be signing a contract that is fairly close to the minimum. I’d be suprised if a team was willing to give him a large portion of their MLE. The LLE perhaps?
  • Most likely, the minimum, or slightly above.