Update: The Rockets did not use the MLE, they signed Ariza with the Disabled Player’s Exception (Yao’s injury)
ESPN reports
The Houston Rockets have answered the defection of Ron Artest to the Los Angeles Lakers by quickly reaching an agreement to sign Trevor Ariza away from L.A.
NBA front-office sources told ESPN.com that Ariza made a verbal commitment Tuesday night to sign a five-year deal with the Rockets on Wednesday — the first day free agents are permitted to sign new contracts — not long after the Lakers and Artest reached terms on a three-year deal worth an estimated $18 million.
ESPN.com’s Chris Sheridan reports that Ariza, according to sources, will receive the Rockets’ full mid-level exception, which is being projected to come in at $5.8 million for next season. If the exception for the 2009-10 season is indeed set at $5.8 million Wednesday when the league announces next season’s salary cap and luxury tax, Ariza’s deal would be worth $33.5 million.
The Rockets and Lakers have effectively traded players, with Artest gaining a three year deal, and Ariza getting a five year deal.
What Is Houston Doing?
Questions:
#1 – What are the Rockets doing? Are they rebuilding? Are they contending?
#2 – What roles do Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming have in their future?
#3 – If Tracy McGrady is done, how will they replace him? In 2010’s free agency?
#4 – How does Ariza’s contract complicate Houston’s 2010 option?
#5 - Where does Scola’s next contract fit in? Is he still in the picture long term? After they pay him, and pay Ariza, and are paying Battier and Yao Ming, how much money do they have available to them?
#6 – How will Houston acquire top level talent? I love their role players, but where are the stars coming from? With McGrady on the shelf and Artest being shipped out of town, it’s an important question.
#7 – Do Houston still low ball Ron Artest if Yao Ming is healthy? If this is a reaction to Yao’s injury, how does paying Ariza figure better into their plans than paying Artest?
Attempts at answering those questions
#1 – Not sure, but if they’re paying Ariza this type of money I’d guess they’re still trying to contend.
#2 – McGrady is likely done for. Yao is an unknown until the test results come back.
#3 – I do not think that the Rockets have a plan for replacing McGrady. After the Ariza contract, 2010 doesn’t look possible for the Rockets
#4 – Yao Ming, Shane Battier, and Trevor Ariza add up to $40 million dollars by themselves. From there Houston has a bunch of team options (Brooks, Landry, Hayes) and expiring contracts, so they could renounce everyone and stay at $40 million. There would be a large cap hold ($4+ million) for open roster spots, which would likely stop Houston from having enough money to offer a maximum contract in 2010. Ergo, Ariza’s signing takes them out of the 2010 max contract festivities.
#5 – The above answer didn’t include Luis Scola, who’s contract expires after next season. Scola is one of the best bargains in the NBA and he’ll be up for a big extension. He’s worth around $8-9 million a season, but the Rockets may get lucky and be able to keep him around for a figure closer but slightly above the MLE ($6.5-7.5 million). Signing Scola further complicates their 2010 cap situation.
#6 – Hard to upgrade Yao Ming in a trade, and impossible to upgrade him if he’s injured. Also, the financial implications with Yao make it very unlikely that he would be traded. The rest of Houston’s players have better on court value than trade value, so finding an upgrade there would be very difficult. The trade possibilities are poor, as are Houston’s cap possibilities, and their draft possibilities since they figure to be a playoff team assuming Yao is healthy enough to play. Of course if Yao isn’t healthy, they’re rebuilding regardless of all else.
#7 – No, I don’t think they do … and I do not understand how Ariza benefits them more than Artest if they’re rebuilding.
In other words, I do not have a clue what Houston is doing.
The Contract
The contract is somewhere between fine and excellent depending on where Ariza’s jump shot ends up in the future. If he can maintain his playoff shooting, then he’s a bargain and one of the finest role players in the NBA. If he cannot, but maintains a serviceable jumper, then he’s earning a solid enough contract.
Conclusion
Hard to say, I don’t understand what Houston is doing. I don’t understand where they are going, and how this fits into their plans.
Update: Disable Player Exception
Due to Yao Ming’s injury and the likelihood that he misses the entire of next season, the league has granted the Rockets use of the Disable Player Exception. This is worth the same as the MLE ($5.8 million), and the Rockets have used this on Trevor Ariza.
This means the Rockets still have their MLE to use on someone else.
