NBA Roundtable

The Money: Chris Bosh’s Extension

In Free Agency on June 8, 2009 at 11:13 am

Chris Bosh Dunking

The Money

What is the difference between the amount of money Toronto can offer Chris Bosh and the amount some other team can offer?

Chris Bosh can earn a max contract which can be up to 30% of the salary cap. Since we don’t know the exact salary cap figure, we can’t give exact figures for Bosh’s salary, but we can effectively ball park the figure.

For the purposes of this example, we’ll assume a nice round figure of $60 million for the salary cap in 2010.

Some Other Team Offers Bosh A Max Contract

A salary starting at $18 million, at 8% increases per annum, for five years.

Year One: $18,000,000

Year Two: $19,440,000

Year Three: $20,880,000

Year Four: $22,320,000

Year Five: $23,760,000

Total: $104,400,00

Therefore, the offer is worth $104.4 million.

The Toronto Raptors Offer Bosh A Max Contract

A salary starting at $18 million, at 10.5% increases per annum, for six years.

Year One: $18,000,000

Year Two: $19,890,000

Year Three: $21,780,000

Year Four: $23,670,000

Year Five: $25,560,000

Year Six: $27,450,000

Total: $136,350,000

Therefore, the offer is worth $136.35 million.

Conclusions

Ergo, under a $60 million cap, the difference in the two contracts is about $32 million.

Thoughts

Chris Bosh will only pass up that type of money if he is appalled with the direction and future of the Toronto Raptors (in other words, Bryan Colangelo).

I use a strong word like appalled purposefully, for emphasis of how strong Bosh’s negativity needs to be … because if Bosh is only somewhat concerned about Colangelo’s running of the club I cannot see him passing up that type of money.

I think it has to be an utterly miserable, borderline depressive state, for Bosh to pass up on $30+ million.

The type of unhappiness I’m talking about — For the duration of the six year contract, nevermind competing for a Title, Chris Bosh isn’t even convinced his Raptors will win a first round series in the near future — that type of unhappiness … the type of unhappiness that rules any financial benefits meaningless.

Outside of that extreme possibility, Chris Bosh is resigning with the Toronto Raptors.

One Exception

If Bryan Colangelo co-operates with a sign and trade.

Under these circumstances, Chris Bosh would be able to receive the same contract he’d get from Toronto but join a new club, in other words he wouldn’t have to give up any money and he’d simply choose the best opportunity for him … which is highly unlikely to be Toronto.

In a sign and trade, the Raptors will likely receive a massive trade exception because Bosh will likely be joining someone like Miami who are under the cap — no need for salaries to match when trading to a team below the cap = no salaries, or a little salaries, given in return = trade exception —  In conjunction with that trade exception, the Raps could receive a first round pick or two, or if they get really lucky the may be able to get their hands on a prospect like Michael Beasley.

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  1. No one gives up $35mill, I don’t care who you are. Can’t make up that kind of money even with endorsements.

    If the Raptors were going to sign and trade him to Miami, I would insist on Beasley, picks and maybe try for Chalmers.

    Interesting question for you: if Riley had the balls to take Mayo over Beasley (i was a huge Mayo fan, and would have definitely taken him over Beasley), would that trio be the makings of a team that would contend for the championship for the next 6 years or so?

  2. Hey Raps Fan,

    I fully agree, I can’t see Bosh turning down that type of money either.

    A Wade-Bosh-Mayo trio? Definitely. That would the core to a contender for a long time.

    That said, I think Miami is going to be a contender regardless of who they used that pick on. Their cap flexibility is superb; they have enough cap space to offer a max contract to one player, and another near max contract to a second player … then add Wade, Beasley and Chalmers to the mix, and you have one heck of a team on your hands. They’re in a brilliant position to be a Contender for the remainder of Wade’s career.

    I think Miami has the most enticing offer out there in the 2010 market. They’re the team to watch in free agency that summer.

  3. A Side Point

    If the Raptors did lose Chris Bosh, and choose to sign and trade him away to someone like Miami.

    If they also decided to let go of Andrea Bargnani that summer, they would have seven players on their roster — Calderon, 2009 first round pick, 2010 first round pick, Kapono, Ukic, Banks, Humphries — who’d combine to tie up about $31.5 million.

    So the Raptors would have a shade under $30 million in cap space, assuming a $60mil cap, in that situation.

    Quick Retooling Possibility?

    Okay, so the Raptors could then sign two elite stars with their $30mil of cap space, and have a $10+mil trade exception to use after they gave away their cap space, to add a third star, while keeping Calderon as their fourth best player. Plus possibly two lottery picks from the this summer and next summer. That could make a very interesting team.

    The whole idea is dependent on what type of quality the Raptors would be able to acquire after Chris Bosh leaves. But conceivably, if they could get some talent in, they could retool very quickly and build a very good team straight away.

    Of course, once Marion + Delfino + Co., receive their contract extensions this summer, and after Bargnani receives his massive contract extension, that possibility is taken off the table … and a full blown rebuilding process appears to be the only option at that point then.

    Edit: I’m not 100% certain on how trade exceptions are worked out … but I think it’s the previous season’s salary of the traded player.

    For example, Seattle got a $9mil trade exception for Rashard Lewis (previous year’s salary, not first year’s in Orlando), and Denver got around a $10mil trade exception for Marcus Camby (salary for last season in Denver). If that’s right, the Raptors would get a $15mil trade exception for Chris Bosh.

    Think of it another way, that $15mil trade exception is Kapono + Banks + Humphries who are all expiring the following the summer. So, the luxury tax burden ($5mil) would be for one season, and then the Raptors would be back well beneath the luxury tax threshold the following season. Of course, if Toronto proves unwilling to take that hit, then they could just use $10mil of that trade exception and remain below the luxury tax in both years.

  4. Dave,

    As you’ve always outlined, and as I’ve repeatedly maintained:

    1. The Raptors have different options to choose from, not all of which are domesday propositions;

    and,

    2. Where this team has gone since Feb 2006, and where it goes from this point forward, is the responsibility of, and will be determined by the ability of no one else other than Bryan Colangelo [as the chief representative of MLSE].

    3. Like you, I think Pat Riley actually knows what he’s doing.

  5. Hey Khandor,

    I’m in complete agreement about the Raptors having several options open to them should Chris Bosh leave.

    I think the most dangerous pitfall — to the Raps chances of turning the franchise around should Bosh leave — will be the trade market.

    The Raptors have to be very careful about what type of contracts they take back in that trade. They could end up handcuffing the franchise for a long time if they make the wrong type of trade.

    If the Raps are careful though, they could find some nice consolations prizes in the trade market while also keeping a lot of their new-found cap flexibility open to them … well, that is, if Colangelo doesn’t waste it all this summer and put the team in far worse shape than it is in today.

    I’m absolutely terrified about Colangelo’s summer plans. The level of short term thinking behind those plans is frightening.

  6. Interesting as always. While there’s no guarantee that Colangelo won’t throw money at Marion (and others) like he did at Kapono I do wonder if he hasn’t lucked out in terms of the FA market this summer. When it comes to Marion, who is probably the best fit for the Bosh/Bargnani front line, who else is going to bid up the price? Detroit? I think he duplicates Prince too much. Oklahoma? Can’t see him as a positive influence on that young team whose chances of making the playoffs next year are not appreciably better than the Raptors (sigh). Portland? Memphis? I have a hard time even finding an obvious fit in a sign and trade. Maybe LA if they implode in the Finals and want to retool with a vet. Maybe San Antonio or New Orleans. I think Colangelo gets Marion at a good price if he has the sense to just let the market play out this summer.

    And then there’s Josh Childress and Von Wafer. Wonder if Childress’s rights could be had for Hump? Will Wafer get offered more than half the MLE?

  7. Thanks Sam,

    I agree, I think it’s a great year for getting Shawn Marion at a good price too.

    I struggle to see any of the teams below the cap making a hard run at him for large money. I expect the MLE to be the main offer available to him, unless something totally unexpected happens. I don’t like his sign and trade chances either, I don’t see teams giving up anything that’s very valuable to get their hands on Marion (ditto for Iverson).

    I think Bryan Colangelo has a good read on the market for Marion, so I’d be very surprised if he overpaid him. That’s somewhat comforting. He’ll have to pay him a little more than the MLE to make it worthwhile for Marion, I’m thinking $7-8mil does the trick. I’d be upset if Colangelo went as high as $10mil, like Golden State did with Maggette last summer … but I don’t think he’ll do that, it sounds like (from his responses to questions in his interviews) he has a good understanding of Marion’s standing in the free agent market this summer.

    Josh Childress + Von Wafer

    Would you like these two guys to be targets for the Raptors in free agency?

    It’ll be very interesting to see what Von Wafer gets this summer, hard to get a good read on his value.

  8. re: Childress & Wafer

    IMO, players like these two outlast their usefulness once they pursue big-money contracts, as something more than a role-playing back-up. Personally, I would not to want either player as a starter for my team, if I’m serious about becoming a legit contender in the NBA.

    re: Marion with Bosh & Bargnani

    IMO, that’s a waste of money unless Shawn Marion is going to be the main guy at #4/PF, while Bosh is the main guy at #5/C with Bargnani as his back-up. Shawn Marion is simply not a Top Notch #3/SF in the NBA, and neither is Bargnani a Top Notch #4/PF. At the salaries they will be due to earn for the 2010-2011 season, if they re-up with the Raptors, they would no longer be cost-effective players, in comparison with other guys at their same positions scattered across the NBA.

    The NBA is littered with ‘poor’ GM’s who might be able to see Shawn Marion as a good fit for their squad at either SF or PF, even though I [we?] might not see him in that light.

    If I had to make a wager on the outcome right now, my bet would be to say that Marion does not play a game next season for the Raptors.

    If he does, that’s a bad move for the long term future of the Raptors.

  9. Wafer as a platoon SG/SF with Delfino (and backing up Marion at the 3) strikes me as an adequate stop-gap while the Raptors let DeRozan develop(if he’s drafted by them and if he is the player advertised). That assumes both Wafer and Delfino are willing to take less than the MLE, say $3-4 mil/yr (which is surely what their market value is) AND a short contract of 2-3 years. If I were Colangelo I’d probably take Wafer over Delfino if forced to but that’s purely a gut reaction. There’d be considerable risk is making him your starter at the 2.

  10. On 2nd thought, if the Raptors get DeRozan or Evans in the draft they’d have to choose between Delfino and Wafer and platoon one of them with the draft choice. Wafer intrigues me but more as a 6th man than starter.

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