Yesterday, throughout the afternoon, the Sacramento Kings and New York Knicks held trade discussions. The deal was Kenny Thomas in return for Nate Robinson and Jared Jeffries. On three separate occasions the Kings made their offer, and on three occasions the Knicks rebuffed their advances foolishly.
Let’s have a look at that trade, because it was the biggest decision made by the Knicks yesterday.
The Contracts
This trade is all about contracts and it’s a home run for the Knicks.
- Kenny Thomas — Expires in 2010. He will be paid roughly $8.5mil this season and next.
- Nate Robinson — Expires this summer and is paid a little over $2mil on the season. He is due for a contract extension this summer that could be worth as much as $5-6mil. It’s still not clear whether the Knicks plan to hang onto him or not.
- Jared Jeffries — Jeffries’ deal doesn’t expire until 2011. He is due to paid $6mil, $6.5mil, and finally $6.9mil over the next three years.
The contract of most importance is Jared Jeffries because his $7mil contract eats into the Knicks cap space in 2010, and reduces their ability to acquire top tier talent.
Knicks 2010 Cap Space
Currently, the Knicks have this on the following on their books for 2010/11
- Eddy Curry — $11.3mil — looks very likely that the Knicks are going to be stuck with this contract.
- Jared Jeffries — $6.9mil
- Danillo Gallinari — $3.3mil
- Wilson Chandler — $2.1mil
- 2009 Draft pick — roughly $2mil
- A cap charge for seven empty roster spots which comes out to $3.33mil.
That places the Knicks at roughly $28.9mil.
If the salary cap threshold holds steady at $58mil, that leaves the Knicks with roughly $29mil to spend. A max contract free agent give to the class of 2003, that’s LeBron and Wade and Bosh, would start at $17.4mil in this scenarion (30% of cap), in other words, the Knicks would be incapable of adding two top level free agents.
If the cap decreased, the Knicks would be in even further trouble.
For the Knicks to have enough cap space to sign two max contract free agents, as they’re set up currently, the cap would need to rise to about $69mil which simply isn’t happening — remember a max contract is 30% of the cap, so those contracts rise each time the cap rises, so the increase needs to be large.
Top Free Agents Will Not Come To A Non-Contender
As powerful as a draw as the New York Knicks are, simply put, no player of Wade’s or LeBron’s caliber is going to come to New York if they don’t have an opportunity to contend for an NBA Championship.
It’s imperative that the Knicks have the cap flexibility to acquire two max contract free agents, so that they can make a legitimate challenge for the title.
If they cannot acquire two max contract free agents, then the Knicks are not capable of acquiring a player like LeBron James. The Knicks will not be a first choice destination for top free agents.
The Knicks Need To Jettison Some Salaries
Sticking with an assumed cap of $58mil — that’s the cap holding steady at where it is today — how much salary would the Knicks have to cut to create enough room for two max contract salaries?
- Two max contract free agents — 60% of the cap — $34.8mil
- Eddy Curry — $11.3mil — he’s included because he’s likely not movable.
Okay, now let’s say that we are willing to move anybody else in order to create this cap flexibility. So we’re willing to move Jeffries, Chandler, Gallinari and the 2009 pick.
So, what is our floor on the salary situation so far?
- $34.8mil — 2 max contract players
- $11.3mil — Eddy Curry
- A cap charge for 9 open roster spots coming out at a little under $4.3mil
That has the Knicks up at $50.4mil which leaves the Knicks with about $7.5mil (plus the reduction of the cap charge) to spend.
That $7.5mil could be broken down into two sections
- Jared Jeffries, or,
- Danillo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and the 2009 draft pick which will be a lottery pick or just outside the lottery.
Rookie contracts are gold for teams going all out on expensive max contract free agents. It’s those rookie contracts that are kept, that offer the supporting cast that is good enough to contend for an NBA title. They’re a major priority for a club in the Knicks position.
Lee and Nate
Now remember, this is before we even get anywhere near paying David Lee or Nate Robinson an extension. In a single heartbeat we can see how complex and challenging it will be for the Knicks to retain those players.
The Non-Trade
We took a detour for a little while there to get some background information on why this deal was important to New York. We needed to explore their cap situation to understand the ramifications of passing on a deal that sees them get rid of Jared Jeffries, and sets them up perfectly to sign two max contract free agents in 2010.
Conclusions
This non-trade from Donnie Walsh is a disaster. It was a miracle there was some team out there willing to take back Jeffries deal, and give NY their cap space and all at the low cost of Nate Robinson who is a player the Knicks cannot afford to pay this summer. This is a deal that likely will never come around again, and Donnie Walsh blew it.
The Knicks made two good trades yesterday, acquiring Larry Hughes and Chris Wilcox, but only one deal was of major importance and that was this non-trade, which Donnie Walsh screwed up.
The reason that this was the only trade of major significance is because it was the only deal which effected the Knicks ability to contend for an NBA title in the future, and this non-move has worsened that opportunity in a massive way.
As for the Kings and Geoff Petrie, Petrie should be taken out back and slapped around for even offering this deal. It was idiotic and the Kings should thank their lucky stars that Donnie Walsh passed on it. This trade would have hurt the Kings so badly — like, my goodness, Petrie isn’t showing enough understanding of how this salary cap works and he hasn’t for several years now. He might be done, which is a crying shame because he’s a fabolous GM in so many other ways.
Posted on February 20, 2009 by Dave