Thehoopsdoctors.com have a bunch of stories detailing some of the rumours floating around the league right now. One caught by eye, the Crawford-Ford trade, a very interesting trade. Let’s look at it from Toronto’s point of view, Raps only.
Jamal Crawford or Rip Hamilton to the Raptors
Ever since the New York Knicks hired Mike D’Antoni as their new head coach, the talk about town has been who will stay and who will go on the roster before the start of next season. There is no doubt that the new GM Donnie Walsh and new Head Coach Mike D’Antoni will want to put their stamp on this team immediately. I doubt this will mean a fire sale, but it will definitely mean they are working the phones to break up the old New York Knicks and create a new and hopefully much improved version.Some talk that is starting to pick up steam is the Knicks interest in one of the two starting point guards of the Toronto Raptors. It is fairly clear the Knicks are writing off Stephon Marbury as their point guard of the future. Everyone in the league is aware of the situation in Toronto where their experiment of holding two starting caliber point guards, TJ Ford and Jose Calderon, on the same roster this season failed miserably. With Bryan Colangelo at the helm you can be sure a deal for one of the two point guards will get done before next season. Although Mike D’Antoni would clearly rather Calderon, due to his similarities in playing style to Steve Nash who was the epitome of D’Antoni’s system, most analysts are leaning towards Toronto moving the high energy scoring point guard TJ Ford. Although most teams in the league are going to try to low-ball Toronto on their offers for Ford, their obvious need for a more high profile swingman may lead to a deal Ford. Word on the street is that the Knicks are looking to offer up shooting guard Jamal Crawford and possibly one of their rebounding big men, if the Raptors will send them TJ Ford and one or two expiring contracts. Apparently the Knicks are currently collecting expiring contracts wherever possible so they can make a run at Lebron James in 2010 when he becomes a free agent.
Assuming for now it’s a straight sway between Crawford-Ford.
Neither Crawford or Calderon are good enough to be the best perimeter player on a title winning side.
For the Raptors to contend for a title with one of those two as their best perimeter players Chris Bosh would need to become Shaquille O Neal Part Two. That ain’t going to happen. And still, even with Bosh rising to that level there would be huge doubts over their chances. Do LA win any of those rings without Kobe?
That means they’d (Crawford and Calderon) be the 3rd and 4th best players on the roster going forward. That also means that the Raptors would need enough trade assets to acquire a top notch small forward who can both score and create with the basketball in his hands. That means you have 8-10mil apiece tied up in Calderon and Crawford, another max contract in Bosh, and another contract likely between 12mil-max contract for the small forward. According to Hoopshype the Raps currently have 30mil on the books for 09-10 season, add in Calderons 8-10mil and Bargnani’s 6mil option being called and you’re up around 44-46mil leaving 10-13mil in cap space depending on whether the cap rises. That means the Raptors could not spend their mid level exception this summer and that they could not take back any long term contracts before they acquire that top perimeter player.
It’s also worth pointing out you’re not talking about a borderline all-star small forward like Peja Stojakovic or Richard Jefferson to fill that hole. Just imagine late in the fourth in the playoffs, who’s creating the offense when the team needs a bucket? Is that really going to beat a top title contender? The team will still need that All-Pro caliber wing who can create off the dribble for himself and his teammates. That’s a big ask.
Now add that top small forward with that cap space, now remember the interior that still needs re-inforcements, the bench that needs to be filled and Bargnani’s potential future contract … then you have a muddy picture. Lot of uncertainty.
So I don’t love it from the financial side but I could go along with it if I loved the basketball part. So let’s have a look at that.
From a pure basketball point of view …. How good a fit is Crawford?
He’s a below par defender. That would leave the starting backcourt with two below average defenders who frequently allow easy dribble penetration. That’ll put even more pressure on the Rap’s mediocre interior defense. I don’t think the defense can survive this. So now we’re talking about a below average perimeter defense, average interior defense, a perimeter group of players that have no flexibility (not like you can hide Crawford on a small forward to avoid Ray Allen killing him because of Crawford’s slight frame and weak D). Defensively I hate it.
Offensively Crawford is one of the most unreliable/unpredictable players in the league. You never know what he’s going to do when he touches the ball which makes him difficult to play alongside. His decision making is suspect. Crawford also likes to dominate the basketball which will be difficult between Calderon and Bosh, nevermind if the Raps acquire that neccessary creative top perimter player. I’ve always thought Crawford would work best in a Triangle offense where his potential movements are mapped out for him and the offense avoids him over-using the basketabll. Raptors don’t run that type of offense. Offensively I think Crawford is talented but not a great fit, at best he’d be an above average player offensively for the Raptors. I see Crawford being closer to the 16ppg mark for Toronto rather than the 21ppg mark he set last season in New York.
Another thing about Crawford’s offense that worries me is how inefficient he is. He shots 41% this past season and is on 40% for his career. He’s a streak shooter from the perimeter. He’s never shot above 36% from three for a full season yet he jacks up 6 threes a night last season in NY, one season he took 7 three pointers a night.
It’s also worth pointing out that’s he’s unguardable off the dribble and can beat his man to rim any time he wants. Yet he only shoots 3.5 FTs a game. It’s because he falls in love with long contested jump shots and forgets about driving. It also shows how unintelligent he is and how suspect his decision making is. Then you add in those 2+ turnovers a night.
He’s in the Antoine Walker mold of inefficient scoring.
Crawford does also possess a very nice passing game, I have a lot of respect for that part of his game.
Oddly enough, I actually really like Jamal Crawford. He loves basketball and wants to be a good player. He’s very coachable and improves every year. He has some nice skills and there’s a lot of untapped potential in his game. There are many good things about him. I just don’t like his fit here in Toronto. I think he needs to go into a low-pressure environment to seriously work out the kinks in his game. I don’t think he’d be able to do that here in this type of an offense and while being asked to be shoulder a large scoring burden. That potential improvement … I can’t see him achieving that with the Raptors.
I wouldn’t make a Crawford trade. I think his presence will cost the Raptors as many points defensively as he creates offensively, not just because of his weak defense but because the Raptors don’t have enough top notch defenders around him so he compounds an already present weak point for the team.
I also think his contract adds pressure to Colangelo finding an immediate top notch swingman over the next 12 months and if he fails during those 12 months, the Raptors will be in a scary position of mediocrity pinning all their hopes on Bargnani becoming a star to bail them out.
